Rumors

According to John Fay, the Giants are interested in Edwin Encarnacion. Fay puts Easy Eddy as the most like Red to be traded, followed by Homer Bailey.

Who might we get back? I wouldn't mind seeing Fred Lewis come back to the Reds in a trade. I saw him late in the year in '08 at the GAP and thought he looked good. He hit .282/.351/.440 last year with 9 hr's and 40 rbi's with 21 sb's in 28 attempts. He struck out 124 times in 133 games, which is too much, but still managed 51 walks and a .351 OBP.

Randy Winn is the same player (.306/.363/.426, with 25 sb's in 27 attempts and a 59/88 BB/K ratio), only proven over time and more expensive. He will earn $8.25 mil. in the final year of a three year contract. Lewis is still around the major league minimum and will be under club control for some time.

Of course, Lincecum and/or Cain would be nice, but right-handed starter is not a place where we want to be putting our resources.

Comfort

Man, I need a new chair. But I did an internet search for Urkelnomically correct chairs and nothing came up.

More Reds

Check out Larry Dobrow's article on the Reds in his Save this Franchise Series on cbssports.com. Click on the article with the picture of Dusty.

25-man update

Looks like the Reds have re-signed Mike Lincoln to a 2 year $4 mil. deal.

Maybe he takes the rule 5 draftee spot, but that would leave us short a left. Maybe they move Owings to the Richie Sexson spot and keep Daniel Ray Harrera in the pen as the other lefty.

The 25-man roster

Based on my hotstove preview, here is the new (and improved?) 25-man roster:

C J.R. Towels, Hanigan
1B Votto, Richie Sexson
2B BP, Castillo
3B EE, Rosales
SS Keppy, Richar
LF Juan Rivera
CF Freel, Hopper
RF Bruce

SP Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Randy Johnson
RP Cordero, Owings, Burton, Bray, Majewski, rule 5 draftee

Line-up v. RHP:
BP
Votto
Rivera
Bruce
EE
Keppy
Towels
Freel
P

Line-up v. LHP:
BP
Votto (LF)
EE
Rivera (RF)
Sexson (1B)
Bruce (CF)
Towels
Keppy
P

Here were some of my assumptions: 1) A-Gon either isn't healthy, or proves healthy in spring training and gets traded (maybe in a package for a catcher); 2) Sexson doesn't blow during his NRI spring training audition; 3)Reds draft a LOOGY in the rule 5 draft; 4) The Reds trade Dickerson as part of the Towels deal; 5) The Reds don't trade for Dye; and 6) Stubbs starts in AAA but is up by May 1 to take Freel's spot.

What do you guys think? Can that roster win? I actually like the pitching staff more than the line-up. Hey, I thought we had too many lefties. I may have to reevaluate that as that's a lot of righties in there against RHP's. I think a post is in order on where we can find another lefty.

Running out of steam

Okay, I'm running out of steam on my hotstove preview for the Reds.  I have a ton of other ideas for posts but want to finish this up, so tonight we talk pitching (or lack thereof). Barring a move, our 1-4 spots in the rotation are set:  Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, and Cueto, not necessarily in that order.  What we need out of this group is Harang from '06 and '07, but not '08, and Arroyo from the second half of last year. (The Legends had him riding pine for five of his wins -- but in their defense, they were five wins coming off of his late June disaster in Toronto. He gave up something like 10 runs in front of a ton of scouts. Without that terrible outing, however, he probably would have had a great second half for another team.) If Cueto can get a little better and Volquez only gets a little worse, that's a pretty decent rotation. 

Oh wait, it's not the '70's and we need a fifth guy. I'm already on record as saying that fifth guy should be the Big Unit. I may follow-up this post with some other left-handers that may be out there (for example there are some great candidates in the Rule 5 draft, but I see that as a better way to tab a decent lefty reliever) but that will have to wait. Suffice it to say, if "who is the fifth starter" is our big concern coming north in the spring, we're in good shape. (I know, a cop out, but like I said I'm running out of steam.) Right now, the fifth spot is wide open. 

Our pen doesn't look too bad either.  Coco is again slated to be our closer, and with his contract they really have no choice but to run him out there in the ninth every chance they get. Plus, running a bullpen doesn't seem to be one of Dusty's strongest points, so a confirmed closer is a plus for this team.  Jared Burton seems like a decent enough set-up guy, maybe in the Heath Bell mold, and Bray has all of the experts salivating. Maybe this is the year that Bray and Majewski put the "worst trade ever -- for both teams" talk to rest.  Both of these guys have some promise. I don't know anything about Daniel Ray Herrera other than he's a lefty. If he's another Felix Herrera, he'll do. 

The only other reliever listed is Micha Owings and I have a separate post planned for him.  I will also visit the pitching prospects later.

As far as the rumor mill goes, the Reds are said to be talking to David Weathers to bring him back (not a terrible idea, but probably not worth the money) and are said to be looking at lefty Arthur Rhoads in the free agent market (not a terrible idea, but probably not worth the money).  I haven't heard any other rumors other than that the Reds already have a deal in place to send Arroyo to the White Sox (no relation) for Jermaine Dye.  Oh wait, I wrote that earlier today. Probably not true, then.   

For now, the floor is open to any comments on the roster as a whole, and any potential moves the Reds should make.  

Christmas comes early

For me anyway.  Thanks to Amy Hodge  I can now do links in my posts. You should log on to facebook and ask her to be your friend.

Javier Vazquez trade

This is supposed to be a general baseball blog, so I will make some comments about the trade generally before I get to how it effects the Reds. I like this trade for both teams. Vazquez is a very underated pitcher and should get a boost in stats coming to the N.L. The Braves give up a lot of prospects here, but Boone Logan is a decent left-hander out of the pen and Vazquez goes right in near the top of their rotation. Flowers is a good prospect, but the Braves have McCann as their main catcher. On the other hand, the White Sox (no relation) need a long-term replacement for A.J. Lillibridge is underated as a prospect (you'll recall he came over from the Pirates last year) but I wonder if the Braves are trying to re-sign Furcal to play short. I don't see Lillibridge starting this year, so the White Sox may still be planning something with a big hole at third. Unless they plan to move Ramirez to third instead of short and plug in Lillibridge.

I'd never heard of the other two guys.

The Sox lose Vazquez, which leaves only Danks, Floyd, and Buehrle as decent rotation options. On the surface a curious move for a "contender." I'm choosing to believe that this means the Sox have worked out a deal with the Reds for Dye. But it's not Homer, it's Arroyo. Arroyo replaces Vazquez in the rotation (although not as one, but a four). Arroyo is actually a decent value with his contract. Of course, it could just mean that they are planning to sign a free agent, like bringing Jon Garland back for a second tour. One thing for certain, they can't go into the year and hope to compete with only the three decent starters. Interesting...

Christmas list

My wife asked me for my Christmas list the other day and the only thing I could think of was that I want someone to show me how to fix my blog so that if anyone ever comments, it will alert me by e-mail. I also would like to know how to put a link in a post. You know how when you read an article and it mentions someone's name you can always click on it and be linked to something (like a Wikipedia entry)? Wouldn't that be cool? Anyway, a blogger I know (ukfootballfan.blogspot.com) (see, wouldn't it be cool if that showed up as a link to click on?) wants to know how to "download" (he used the word "get" -- no wonder he doesn't know what he's doing) pictures from other websites onto his blog. So that's three things I want for Christmas. Oh, plus I want an authentic fitted Reds hat, all red, size 7 1/2. I know, a big mellon. I promise to take the tag and stickers off to prove I'm old.

Yonder Alonso ...

... is the 34th best prospect in baseball according to this week's top 50 prospects report on mlb.com.

Outfield update (you knew I'd leave out something)

The A's have a lot of extra outfielders. A guy I love and one the Reds should target is Aaron Cunningham. (He's currenly on the Blue Sox roster, but missed minor league eligibility by a couple days, so probably will not be kept this year. So I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds get him.)
He hasn't been on a lot of the top-prospects lists, but in '07 in the minors, in 127 games, he hit .308/.375/.509, with 16 hr's, 77 rbi's, and 28 sb's. (He did get caught 14 times, which means his technique could use some work -- like with Billy Hatcher.)

In '08, he improved in the minors over several levels. In 107 games he hit .329/.400/.532, with 17 hr's, 66 rbi's, and 15 sb's (caught 5 times). He then hit the Bigs for September, batting only .250/.310/.400, with 1hr, 14 rbi's, and 2 sb's (o cs). Not a bad line, but not great. He's sort of the opposite of Chris Dickerson.

Here's the problem, his strike outs have increased dramatically. In '07, he struck out 89 times to 51 walks in 127 games. In '08 in the minors, he struck out 108 times to only 49 walks in 107 games. This is a little less scary because his power numbers jumped some. And even with the strikeouts, because of the boost in batting average, his OBP increased, as well. In the Bigs, he struck out 24 times in 22 games with only six walks. Not great, but a small sample size. His '08 was a success on almost any measurement scale, and he's only 22 (turning 23 in April).

I know what you're saying, don't we already have Bruce and Stubbs to do this better (and cheaper -- see previous post). My response: I know, but I like Cunningham, certainly more than Dickerson, and I think he would provide great depth even if he doesn't beat out Stubbs/Freel/Hopper to start in center. Even though Cunningham has not been rated a top prospect, I think we need the depth there, with Stubbs are only legit outfield prospect right now.

What to give for him? I don't know, but it shouldn't take much. The A's are loaded with similar outfield types with Travis Buck, Eric Patterson, Matt Murton, et al. Plus, they just traded for Matt Holiday, so I dont' see A.C. in their future plans.

Out standing in my field . . .

My ag. class designation.  I was also voted most likely to sack seed.  (Who could have predicted that I would end up working for FFA.) 

Today we tackle the outfield.  Probably the only decision that has already been made is that Bruce will start in the outfield somewhere.  I think he's in the Bigs to stay after an extended look last season.  His average tailed off after a hot start, but everyone seems to agree that he has the tools. Even if he doesn't, the Reds can't afford not to find out by playing the fan favorite pretty much everyday next year. Right now, he's slated for RF but that could change depending on other transactions.  

Probably the other thing we know for sure is that the Reds won't start the year with Hopper and Freel manning the other two spots. If so, all of this blogging will have been in vain. I could see one or the other starting in center next year, perhaps as a place holder for Drew Stubbs, the Reds' only legit OF prospect that's even close to the Bigs.  Stubbs, the Reds' first pick in '06, could probably start right now in center. He's very good defensively and has all of the baseball instincts that go with being a top prospect.  He has terrific speed and bats righty, which is exactly what we need in center.  Except, he strikes out too much. He could very easily be the next Mike Cameron (minus the ubiquitous coffee can of pot - amphetamines my ear) but may be a year away.  I guess Freel (he makes more than Hopper, so probably gets the nod -- what kind of job makes you more likely to get the nod because you cost more?) could be a legit placeholder and leadoff hitter until he either gets hurt or Stubbs comes up after whatever date that is where the player's arbitration clock doesn't start, see Evan Longoria.  

That leaves another spot, and I think the Reds will make a move here. I wanted the Reds to trade for Coco Crisp but (fortunately for the Blue Sox -- see reason to blog, infra) the Royals got him.  I'm on record as saying the Reds should sign Juan Rivera as a free agent. If they do that, they're done in the outfield. Rivera is poised for a break-out and that could happen in a Reds uniform. Plus, if we sign Rivera, we don't have to trade anybody, especially Bailey.

Jermaine Dye has been the subject of a lot of trade rumors, and his value has been debated on this very blog. I think Bailey and another player for him is worth it. We've got the money and he will produce. His age is an issue (thanks, Whit -- boy has there ever been a bigger misnomer?) but the Reds don't need him past 2010. 

Maglio Orndonez is another possible trade target. Similar to Dye, he brings solid production from a righty outfielder, but would cost a little more. His availability might depend on the Tigers' plans for '09.  Right now, the Tigers do not look like contenders. I don't know what it would take to get Mags, but probably more than Bailey and Chris Dickerson, or Bailey and Josh Roenicke or Maloney, the guys rumored to be involved in the Dye trade. (Dickerson is "rumored to be involved in the Dye trade" only because I just said it on my blog.)  

Here is a crazy idea.  Trade for Andruw Jones.  What do the Reds need?  A starting center fielder and some right-handed pop.  A couple three years ago you couldn't do any better than Jones in that category. His '07 was terrible from and average standpoint (.227?) but he still had power.  Unbelievably, that was a contract year for Jones.  Expected to get a huge deal before '08, he ended up on a 2-year deal with the Dodgers.  A great move for all (is what all the pundits, and me) said at the time.  He'll bounce back and give the Dodgers what they need, the Dodgers didn't go too far out on a limb, and Jones would hit the market in '10 as a free agent again.  At least that was the conventional wisdom. He then went out and had one of the worst seasons ever.  The Legends, who also took a chance on him, suffered greatly.  Which makes it all the more surprising that I would recommend a trade for him.  Sure, he makes a ton, but the Dodgers would give him away, and pay a ton of his salary.  The trade would be a risk, but Jones would be in another contract year (although that didn't help last time).  Don't forget, he spent most of '08 with injuries that ultimately led to knee surgery and the end (mercifully) of his season.  Finally, he's only the second biggest centerfield headache for the Dodgers. They have Juan Pierre on a longer-term deal.  (We could trade for Juan Pierre, but we've seen that movie. It was called C-Pat.) 

Another daring move would be to make a run at Delmon Young.  The Twins weren't too happy with him (who would be, he hit like one home run the first five months of the season) and he comes with some baggage.  But I think he would come cheap, and the Twins love to hoard pitching. Maybe Bailey for Young is a cheaper and more long-term trade option than Dye. (Whit?  Or are you still mad at me?) (Note to self:  when you get one comment, don't make fun of the commentator.)  It would take more than that, so I would throw in Chris Dickerson.  (See, now he's rumored to be going to the Twins for Delmon Young.) Dicerkson's minor league stats don't support his terrific major league stats from a short stint last year in the Bigs.  I think his trade value will never by higher than it is right now, and I would shop him.  Plus, we don't need him.  We have Bruce and Stubbs to do what he can do, only better and just as cheaply.  

The Angels would love to trade Gary Matthews, Jr., (little sarge) but his great '06 turned into a huge, albatross of a contract, and the Reds can't afford to pay a guy like that. Speaking of the Angels, Garrett Anderson is available, but he's too old and bats left-handed. 

Another option would be to trade for David DeJesus. Now that the Royals have Crisp, they have an extra outfielder.  DeJesus is the best of the remaining three, but he also bats left-handed.  I don't think we want to make another run at Jose Guillen (unless we could trade him again for another Harang) nor could we afford him.  Teahen is over rated (and bats left-handed).   

Regarding the other outfielders that may be available, there are always the Jay Payton types available, but I would rather take a chance on a guy we already have than sign another one of those guys. 

Jolbert Cabrera seemed like a decent player last year and might make the squad as it is now. But if he's on the 25-man when the Reds head north in the spring that's trouble.  Not that he's that bad, but that would mean the Reds made no significant moves in the outfield.  And they need to make at least one.  

Wilkin Castillo (aka Supersub) probably does make the team as the 25th guy, which is great, because the Reds could carry only 4 outfielders and an extra reliever.