Wednesday, November 11, 2009
What's going on with the Reds?
First, I saw this very disturbing post about the Reds, but that was followed-up by this from John Fay.
Did the national guy catch Jockety in a moment of candor? The report is awfully detailed to be wrong. And why not tell the story to John Fay? Too many fans read Fay? Here's what's the most disturbing: Jockety doesn't know what he's doing. He signed T-Virus last year for $6.25 mil. (over two years -- $4 mil. of which is owed this year) because Dusty needed a lead-off guy. What we got was a black hole in the lead-off spot, compounded by Dusty's failure to move T-Virus until it was too late (and really only because he got hurt). The Angels, by contrast, spent $5 mil. on Bobby Abreu, who had a near-MVP type year for them. He was an on-base machine, and positively influenced the OBP of the entire team (see Chone Figgins, regular season addition).
Add to that $4 mil. for Mike Lincoln ($2.5 mil. of which is due this year). But Massett, at just above the league minimum, did what Lincoln could not. So for 2010 we already owe $6.5 mil. to two guys that shouldn't see the field for us if we put out our best 25 guys on the roster for 2010. Jockety's complete failure in reading the market last year may cost us a chance to compete in 2010.
But did he learn his lesson? Apparently not. He's talking about trading guys like BP, Harang, and Arroyo because of their contracts (more on that later). But he wants to keep Cordero? If you were going to trade a guy, it would be Cordero. He's coming off a terific season, but he's got 2 more years on his contract. That's about $25 mil. to do what Massett (or someother guy like that) could do, get three guys out in a row toward the end of the game. On the other hand, finding a starter that will give you 200 + quality innings (Arroyo, and probably Harang) is terribly difficult.
Further, he just traded for Rolen, a guy who's going to make $11 mil. this year. (The Blue Jays apparently paid the rest of his '09 salary, and the Cards are paying his deferred bonus, but every indication is that the Reds are paying the full $11 mil. this year.)
BP is in a different category. For one, he could bring some solid players back in trade because he has real value. Two, he goes from making around $7 mil. this year to in excess of $11 mil. next year. But he is the cornerstone of the infield right now.
I hate to say this (as I prepare my check for my season ticket deposit due next week) but the Reds should probably fold the tent for 2010, and trade all four of those guys if they can, plus Rolen. But I'm going to make another suggestion. Go for it this year, but only to the extent that you put the best team on the field that you can with the guys you have and hope for the best. Don't sign any free agents (at least no multi-year deals) and don't trade anybody that could contribute this year. Hot stove fans love to stoke the flames and that would make for a boring off-season but bear with me a minute here.
The only 2011 comittments the Reds have are Cordero's $12.125 mil., BP's approximately $11.2 mil., and $2 mil. buy-outs for Harang and Arroyo on their club options. (And they do owe $1 mil. to Yonder Alonso on his major league contract.) That's it! (In 2012 they owe $1 mil. buy-outs to BP and Cordero on their club options, and $1.4 mil. to Alonso.)
So put the best team out there they can right now without trading any young, cheap players and see where we are at the trade deadline. If we're not contending in July, trade all of those top 5 guys for whatever you can get and start fresh. And with a new manager; Dusty's contract is done after this year. If you are in contention, stay the course, and let your free agents walk after 2010, getting draft picks as compensation. Sounds like a great plan to me.
Did the national guy catch Jockety in a moment of candor? The report is awfully detailed to be wrong. And why not tell the story to John Fay? Too many fans read Fay? Here's what's the most disturbing: Jockety doesn't know what he's doing. He signed T-Virus last year for $6.25 mil. (over two years -- $4 mil. of which is owed this year) because Dusty needed a lead-off guy. What we got was a black hole in the lead-off spot, compounded by Dusty's failure to move T-Virus until it was too late (and really only because he got hurt). The Angels, by contrast, spent $5 mil. on Bobby Abreu, who had a near-MVP type year for them. He was an on-base machine, and positively influenced the OBP of the entire team (see Chone Figgins, regular season addition).
Add to that $4 mil. for Mike Lincoln ($2.5 mil. of which is due this year). But Massett, at just above the league minimum, did what Lincoln could not. So for 2010 we already owe $6.5 mil. to two guys that shouldn't see the field for us if we put out our best 25 guys on the roster for 2010. Jockety's complete failure in reading the market last year may cost us a chance to compete in 2010.
But did he learn his lesson? Apparently not. He's talking about trading guys like BP, Harang, and Arroyo because of their contracts (more on that later). But he wants to keep Cordero? If you were going to trade a guy, it would be Cordero. He's coming off a terific season, but he's got 2 more years on his contract. That's about $25 mil. to do what Massett (or someother guy like that) could do, get three guys out in a row toward the end of the game. On the other hand, finding a starter that will give you 200 + quality innings (Arroyo, and probably Harang) is terribly difficult.
Further, he just traded for Rolen, a guy who's going to make $11 mil. this year. (The Blue Jays apparently paid the rest of his '09 salary, and the Cards are paying his deferred bonus, but every indication is that the Reds are paying the full $11 mil. this year.)
BP is in a different category. For one, he could bring some solid players back in trade because he has real value. Two, he goes from making around $7 mil. this year to in excess of $11 mil. next year. But he is the cornerstone of the infield right now.
I hate to say this (as I prepare my check for my season ticket deposit due next week) but the Reds should probably fold the tent for 2010, and trade all four of those guys if they can, plus Rolen. But I'm going to make another suggestion. Go for it this year, but only to the extent that you put the best team on the field that you can with the guys you have and hope for the best. Don't sign any free agents (at least no multi-year deals) and don't trade anybody that could contribute this year. Hot stove fans love to stoke the flames and that would make for a boring off-season but bear with me a minute here.
The only 2011 comittments the Reds have are Cordero's $12.125 mil., BP's approximately $11.2 mil., and $2 mil. buy-outs for Harang and Arroyo on their club options. (And they do owe $1 mil. to Yonder Alonso on his major league contract.) That's it! (In 2012 they owe $1 mil. buy-outs to BP and Cordero on their club options, and $1.4 mil. to Alonso.)
So put the best team out there they can right now without trading any young, cheap players and see where we are at the trade deadline. If we're not contending in July, trade all of those top 5 guys for whatever you can get and start fresh. And with a new manager; Dusty's contract is done after this year. If you are in contention, stay the course, and let your free agents walk after 2010, getting draft picks as compensation. Sounds like a great plan to me.
Steely Dan report
Rachel and I went to see Steely Dan last night. They are in town for two shows, last night and tonight. Last night, they played the entire Aja album. Tonight, they do the same for The Royal Scam.
The show was terrific. Rachel and I agreed that, musically, it may have been our best show. (Still can't top U2 in 2000, though.) First, they brought the band out, sans Steely Dan, and played an instrumental number that showcased the different instruments, including a great horn section. That was followed by three backup singers, one of whom went over to a turntable in the corner and "started" a record. Then Donald Fagen and Walter Becker came out and they went right into Black Cow, and played the entire album without commentary (other than after Deacon Blues, when the backup singer flipped the record - a great touch).
I remember when Peg came out on the radio. It was the first Steely Dan song that I knew. It and Josie are great pop songs, but Steely Dan is more about jazz/rock than pop, so it was awhile before I took to the other stuff. So Aja was a great album for me to here. Tonight's The Royal Scam may be more like Steely Dan, but I really only know Kid Charlemagne from that album (which they did play as part of the second set). Deacon Blues is probably their best song and it sounded great.
The interesting thing about the first set is that the crowd pretty much stayed quiet and listened. It was more like a concert or show at the Aranoff than a rock concert. But after they finished the album they did a traditional set of songs from various points in their career, leading off with Time Out of Mind from Gaucho, and finishing with Kid Charlemagne. They also played favorites like Bodhitsattva, Babylon Sisters, Hey Nineteen, and Black Friday and a couple songs I didn't know.
They played Dirty Work from their first album. A great song, but one that was originally sung by another member of the band, so the backup singers took the lead and it was just so-so.
The next to last song seemed to be the crowd favorite, My Old School. This is a great tune and an underated classic. The crowd really got into it; for the first time it seemed like a rock concert. Finally, they played Reelin' in the Years as an encore.
I had always heard that Steely Dan was a studio group that never toured. But Donald Fagen was a heck of a showman, really getting into the show. But the music stole the show. The band was terrific and the music (and lyrics for the most part) were very clear. If you're a fan, you should go tonight.
The show was terrific. Rachel and I agreed that, musically, it may have been our best show. (Still can't top U2 in 2000, though.) First, they brought the band out, sans Steely Dan, and played an instrumental number that showcased the different instruments, including a great horn section. That was followed by three backup singers, one of whom went over to a turntable in the corner and "started" a record. Then Donald Fagen and Walter Becker came out and they went right into Black Cow, and played the entire album without commentary (other than after Deacon Blues, when the backup singer flipped the record - a great touch).
I remember when Peg came out on the radio. It was the first Steely Dan song that I knew. It and Josie are great pop songs, but Steely Dan is more about jazz/rock than pop, so it was awhile before I took to the other stuff. So Aja was a great album for me to here. Tonight's The Royal Scam may be more like Steely Dan, but I really only know Kid Charlemagne from that album (which they did play as part of the second set). Deacon Blues is probably their best song and it sounded great.
The interesting thing about the first set is that the crowd pretty much stayed quiet and listened. It was more like a concert or show at the Aranoff than a rock concert. But after they finished the album they did a traditional set of songs from various points in their career, leading off with Time Out of Mind from Gaucho, and finishing with Kid Charlemagne. They also played favorites like Bodhitsattva, Babylon Sisters, Hey Nineteen, and Black Friday and a couple songs I didn't know.
They played Dirty Work from their first album. A great song, but one that was originally sung by another member of the band, so the backup singers took the lead and it was just so-so.
The next to last song seemed to be the crowd favorite, My Old School. This is a great tune and an underated classic. The crowd really got into it; for the first time it seemed like a rock concert. Finally, they played Reelin' in the Years as an encore.
I had always heard that Steely Dan was a studio group that never toured. But Donald Fagen was a heck of a showman, really getting into the show. But the music stole the show. The band was terrific and the music (and lyrics for the most part) were very clear. If you're a fan, you should go tonight.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Yankees redux
A lot of folks are unhappy that the Yankees "bought" their championship with a very high payroll, in fact a payroll signficantly higher than any other team. Here are two links arguing a different perspective, here, and a follow-up.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Bengals bandwagon rolling along
I think the Bengals may have made their season with a big win yesterday over the Ravens. At 6-2, and with Oakland (away), Cleveland, KC, and Detroit still on the schedule, they are looking at a fairly easy route to ten wins. But throw in three tough road games against Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and the Jets, and ten might be it. Still, that should be enough to make the playoffs. Especially considering they are now 4-0 in the division.
A win next week at Pittsburgh would be humongous, but unexpected. Pittsburgh plays tonight at Denver, but will likely be the favorite regardless of what happens tonight. This morning, the Steelers were 7 point favorites. Expect that to go up a little if they win tonight. But lets hope they lose tonight. I had decided on the Falcons (over the Saints, my second choice) for the King-of-the-Hill pool I'm in, but failed to communicate that to the guy running the pool. So I'm stuck with the Monday night underdog, which tonight is Denver. Normally, having Denver at home on Monday night would not be such a bad fate, but they got drilled last week by the Ravens. Let's hope they take it tonight and I survive to next week. If not, it's my own fault. As Rachel said, "how hard is it to send in your pick?"
A win next week at Pittsburgh would be humongous, but unexpected. Pittsburgh plays tonight at Denver, but will likely be the favorite regardless of what happens tonight. This morning, the Steelers were 7 point favorites. Expect that to go up a little if they win tonight. But lets hope they lose tonight. I had decided on the Falcons (over the Saints, my second choice) for the King-of-the-Hill pool I'm in, but failed to communicate that to the guy running the pool. So I'm stuck with the Monday night underdog, which tonight is Denver. Normally, having Denver at home on Monday night would not be such a bad fate, but they got drilled last week by the Ravens. Let's hope they take it tonight and I survive to next week. If not, it's my own fault. As Rachel said, "how hard is it to send in your pick?"
Friday, November 6, 2009
Ramon Hernandez
John Fay reports the Reds will decline the $8 mil plus option on Ramon Hernandez. But they would still like him back and are trying to negotiate a reduced contract. Failing that, they could offer him arbitration and secure a sandwich pick if he signs elsewhere (and is a type b free agent, as expected).
The Reds need Hernandez (or someone like him) to catch. Hanigan had a terrible year, knocking in only 11 runs in 251 plate appearances. He had one of those rare seasons where his on base percentage, which wasn't that bad (.361), was higher than his slugging percentage (.331). With three home runs, he knocked in only 8 teamates the entire year.
Hernandez showed some versatility, too, handling first base very well with Votto on the D/L.
I'm not quite ready for my position-by-position hot stove posts, but we're in the same boat we were last year with the catcher spot. Except this year, we know Hanigan is not the answer as our everyday catcher. Last year, we weren't sure.
The Reds need Hernandez (or someone like him) to catch. Hanigan had a terrible year, knocking in only 11 runs in 251 plate appearances. He had one of those rare seasons where his on base percentage, which wasn't that bad (.361), was higher than his slugging percentage (.331). With three home runs, he knocked in only 8 teamates the entire year.
Hernandez showed some versatility, too, handling first base very well with Votto on the D/L.
I'm not quite ready for my position-by-position hot stove posts, but we're in the same boat we were last year with the catcher spot. Except this year, we know Hanigan is not the answer as our everyday catcher. Last year, we weren't sure.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Game six - The Yankees win!
I missed the first half of the game for my tennis match (we won 0-6, 6-2, 6-3) but was able to stay up for the final out. I always enjoy seeing a team celebrate after winning the world series. I long for the time when it's my team, which hasn't happened since I was a senior in high school when the Cardinals beat the Brewers in game seven of the 1982 world series. Surprisingly, I don't have a clear memory of where I was watching the game when it happened. Hopefully, the next time it happens to me I'll be in my seats at GABP. (That would require a lot of things to happen, not the least of which is the Reds winning in five games or less or the National League actually winning an all star game. I'm not sure which is less likely.)
Pettitte pitched a gem, although technically not a quality start because he didn't get out of the sixth. With less than 90 pitches and a lead, no question he would have stayed in there had it not been game six of the World Series. I didn't see Pedro pitch, but he didn't fair as well, thanks to series MVP Hideki Matsui, who knocked in six of the seven runs. Matsui tied the record for fewest at-bats for a position player MVP in a World Series. Kudos to whoever can comment with who he tied. I assume the series MVP award will not change how the Yanks negotiate with Matsui, who is now a free agent, during the off-season.
Speaking of the off-season, I inted to do a comprehensive season review and then continue the blog during the off-season, with some baseball and some other stuff. I hope you've enjoyed the series games recap and will stick with us at least until pitchers and catchers report in February.
Pettitte pitched a gem, although technically not a quality start because he didn't get out of the sixth. With less than 90 pitches and a lead, no question he would have stayed in there had it not been game six of the World Series. I didn't see Pedro pitch, but he didn't fair as well, thanks to series MVP Hideki Matsui, who knocked in six of the seven runs. Matsui tied the record for fewest at-bats for a position player MVP in a World Series. Kudos to whoever can comment with who he tied. I assume the series MVP award will not change how the Yanks negotiate with Matsui, who is now a free agent, during the off-season.
Speaking of the off-season, I inted to do a comprehensive season review and then continue the blog during the off-season, with some baseball and some other stuff. I hope you've enjoyed the series games recap and will stick with us at least until pitchers and catchers report in February.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Rich Hill
Here is an interesting break down on Rich Hill by the folks at MLBTradeRumors.com. The Reds need a lefty starter; what about this guy? GABP isn't Petco or whatever they're calling the new king dome these days, but I would take a chance on this guy. This is the kind of move the Reds need to be making.
Game five
If A.J. had pitched in game five like he did in game two, we wouldn't have all of this praise for Cliff Lee. Lee's had a great postseason, but he game up five runs on Monday night. Still all the commentators are talking about him coming back in relief for 45-50 pitches (three innings?) on two days rest in game 7. Like the Phillies some how have hope because Lee, who couldn't start on three days rest, will win them the game on two days rest. Don't get me wrong, he's their best pitcher and I would find every possible way to get him in the game (if it's played, which it won't be). But I think it was a huge gamble not to start him on three days rest in game 4. He won game five, but more because A.J. was awful than because he somehow stymied the Yanks. He should have been tasked to go toe-to-toe with CC in games one, four, and seven.
Having said that (and being on record that the Yanks will win in six) I find this very curious: the Yanks were up 2-1 in the series, with home field advantage and probably the best line-up in the game, yet they decided that for every subsequent series game they were going to start a pitcher on three days rest. I don't know that I disagree, I just find that rembarkable. I think Girardi decided when the post season started he was going with three starters all the way. It would be tough to pitch Gaudin in game four when he hadn't pitched in forever, but that seemed like a good option. Give him a short leash and rely on the pen. (I can hear you know, "a bullpen game in game five when you're up 3-1 and can close out the championship?" Good point.) Then they would have brought A.J. back on full rest and at home for game six and still have CC for game seven. Maybe Girardi didn't want to cut Pettitte out of the rotation. Those guys are old buds. The Yankees, for all their money and all their payroll don't have a fourth starting pitcher. Remarkable! And there's your flaw with the postseason. It doesn't measure the value of a team(or lack there of for us Reds fans)the way the regular season does.
As far as game six goes tonight, we'll be partying like it's 1999, with Pedro v. Pettitte. What a great, classic match-up of two aging veterans. Anything could happen, but what I would love to see is a great pitchers duel between these two. What I'm predicting is that they both pitch at least into the sixth and both give up a couple runs. Don't be surprised by a 4-3 type score when the game is turned over to the bullpens. We'll watch the first six innings for the appreciation of the two veterans. Then we'll watch the rest of the game in case we see a train wreck out of either or both bullpens. When it's all said and done, the Yanks will be celebrating tonight.
Having said that (and being on record that the Yanks will win in six) I find this very curious: the Yanks were up 2-1 in the series, with home field advantage and probably the best line-up in the game, yet they decided that for every subsequent series game they were going to start a pitcher on three days rest. I don't know that I disagree, I just find that rembarkable. I think Girardi decided when the post season started he was going with three starters all the way. It would be tough to pitch Gaudin in game four when he hadn't pitched in forever, but that seemed like a good option. Give him a short leash and rely on the pen. (I can hear you know, "a bullpen game in game five when you're up 3-1 and can close out the championship?" Good point.) Then they would have brought A.J. back on full rest and at home for game six and still have CC for game seven. Maybe Girardi didn't want to cut Pettitte out of the rotation. Those guys are old buds. The Yankees, for all their money and all their payroll don't have a fourth starting pitcher. Remarkable! And there's your flaw with the postseason. It doesn't measure the value of a team(or lack there of for us Reds fans)the way the regular season does.
As far as game six goes tonight, we'll be partying like it's 1999, with Pedro v. Pettitte. What a great, classic match-up of two aging veterans. Anything could happen, but what I would love to see is a great pitchers duel between these two. What I'm predicting is that they both pitch at least into the sixth and both give up a couple runs. Don't be surprised by a 4-3 type score when the game is turned over to the bullpens. We'll watch the first six innings for the appreciation of the two veterans. Then we'll watch the rest of the game in case we see a train wreck out of either or both bullpens. When it's all said and done, the Yanks will be celebrating tonight.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Game four
Well, maybe we got exactly what we should have expected. CC on three days rest is not quite as good as on regular rest, but still good enough to win. Blanton was not an ace, but came up with a good start in the most important game of his life. Girardi has been telegraphing his lack of confidence in his bullpen and now we know why. Triple that for Manuel and his bullpen. While not technically a blown save, Lidge gave up the game in the 9th.
If things go as predicted, Lee wins tonight and the series heads back to New York for game 6. Will it take 9 innings from Lee to win the game? Look for AJ to be not quite as sharp as he was in game 2 because of short rest. But I expect he'll get the Yanks to the 7th. That's where the drama will kick in. Yanks in 6 looks pretty good right now.
If things go as predicted, Lee wins tonight and the series heads back to New York for game 6. Will it take 9 innings from Lee to win the game? Look for AJ to be not quite as sharp as he was in game 2 because of short rest. But I expect he'll get the Yanks to the 7th. That's where the drama will kick in. Yanks in 6 looks pretty good right now.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Game three
The great thing about baseball is that anything can happen in any given game. If everything goes as expected tonight, the Yanks will go up 3-1. CC should beat Blanton, and 9 times out of 10 he will. But there's that one time that keeps it interesting. I think more so than most other professional sports.
I missed game 3 because we were at the UK homecoming football game. But as expected, as the teams got away from their aces, the offenses started to score. Pettitte gave what you'd expect, a solid effort. Hamels gave a start consistent with his season, a couple of great innings and then a bunch of runs. Charlie Manuel is taking a huge risk by running Blanton out there for game 4. Not that Blanton is that bad. His stats against the Yanks are bad, but mostly due to a couple of bad starts. Lately, he's been okay. But he's no Cliff Lee. If the Phillies did manage to win, they'd have Lee going tomorrow and would be in the driver seat. But that's a big if. I think it's a mistake not to run Lee out there three times, but Manuel didn't want to try him on three days rest. (If there is a game seven, expect Lee to be available out of the bullpen.)
My Yanks in 6 prediction is still looking good. Look to see CC win tonight, Lee win tomorrow night, and AJ try to close it out in Yankee Stadium in game 6.
I missed game 3 because we were at the UK homecoming football game. But as expected, as the teams got away from their aces, the offenses started to score. Pettitte gave what you'd expect, a solid effort. Hamels gave a start consistent with his season, a couple of great innings and then a bunch of runs. Charlie Manuel is taking a huge risk by running Blanton out there for game 4. Not that Blanton is that bad. His stats against the Yanks are bad, but mostly due to a couple of bad starts. Lately, he's been okay. But he's no Cliff Lee. If the Phillies did manage to win, they'd have Lee going tomorrow and would be in the driver seat. But that's a big if. I think it's a mistake not to run Lee out there three times, but Manuel didn't want to try him on three days rest. (If there is a game seven, expect Lee to be available out of the bullpen.)
My Yanks in 6 prediction is still looking good. Look to see CC win tonight, Lee win tomorrow night, and AJ try to close it out in Yankee Stadium in game 6.
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