What's next for the Reds?

After signing Cabrerra, the big question is what's next for the Reds? If anything. Most likely, the Reds are finished with any big deals (and by that I mean more than $1 mil.) but there will still be some moves. For one thing, the Reds will have to make room on the 40-man for O-Cab. It looks like O-Cab signed with the Reds because he wanted to play short instead of second. That's exactly what we predicted would happen.

Here's what I'm proposing for the Reds: they need to trade a prospect off of the 40-man (actually 2) to make room for O-Cab and find a better 5th-starter option, preferably a lefty. The Reds have committed to Rolen at third for the next three years, so Juan Francisco is blocked there. They may try him in left, but that's not a great solution, especially with the other young talent they have in the outfield. So who needs a third-base prospect and has an extra lefty for the rotaion? The Twins. They've had trouble at third for a while now, and if ever a guy needed a change of scenery it's Glen Perkins. Perkins would be an upgrade over Maloney and Francisco has good trade value right now coming off of a great power year. The Twins have depth in the rotation, and could spare Perkins. The Reds would have to include another 40-man guy, but it could be a lesser prospect, and the Twins would have to include a non-40-man guy, preferably a third-base prospect who is further away than Francisco.

What about other free agents? As far as actual 2010 payroll, the Reds still have a little bit left over from the Rolen re-structure, but some of that was no doubt eaten up in raises for the arbitration eligible guys. So let's say they're out of money and could only sign another guy if Mr. Castellini opens up the payroll a little more. John Fay has reported he might do that, but arguably he already did with O-Cab. But if you're going to trade for Rolen and sign O-Cab, why not go a few more marginal dollars and make a run? Last year, the Reds reportedly took quite a run at Jermaine Dye; it just didn't work out. And that was when Dye was making in the neighborhood of $12-13 mil. Now, he is no doubt available for quite a bit less. He reportedly turned down a similar deal to what the Cubs gave Nady, but I'm not convinced that was because of the money. Nady signed as the fouth outfielder; I don't think Dye was ready to give up on a starting role. Dye could be this year's Abreu, signing a one-year deal a little below market in a favorable player situation to rebuild his value for next year. The Reds (and they're left field spot) are the perfect fit for Dye. His defensive decline will seem less sharp in left field for the Reds. And the short fence in left will help him at the plate, as well. I could see him coming here and having a big bounce-back year, putting himself back on the market next year off of a good season, looking for a multi-year deal. Again, see Abreu.

The Reds are also reportedly still in on Gomes, as well, having offered a minor league deal. I think Gomes will hold out for a major league contract based on the season he had last year. Of course, if the Reds were to sign Dye, Gomes would have to look elsewhere.

I really don't see any other free agents that would both be affordable and help the Reds short or long term. Mark Mulder is out there, and he's got some history with Walt Jockety with the Cardinals, but there's been no chatter connecting Mulder to the Reds. He would be a nice lefty starter if healthy, but may need more guaranteed money than the Reds want to pay (like Sheets). Damon is also out there, but I think he'll hold out for more than what the Reds could pay Dye, and I think Dye's a better fit because of his power potential in Pretty Good American Small Park.

Reds nab O-Cab

Everyone is reporting that the Reds have signed Orlando Cabrerra to a one year deal with an option. John Fay has reported the deal as $3 mil. but other reports have it at $4 mil. With a $1 mil. buyout of an option, it's really $5 mil. guaranteed.

This is exciting news for anyone that wants to see the Reds compete in 2010. The Reds have taken the money they "saved" on Rolen's restructure to sign a veteran guy at a big hole. (I say "saved" because it would have been cheaper not to trade for Rolen in the first place, but that's water under the bridge.) A lot of people are really looking forward to Rolen's leadership this year and O-Cab may help in that department. He certainly seemed to help the Twins last year make the playoffs when he came over in a deadline deal from the A's.

O-Cab will hit; the question is will he play enough defense to be an upgrade over Janish. I think he will. The other question is whether Janish even makes the team now. If your the Reds, and this may depend partly on how the outfield is constructed in terms of right/lefty, wouldn't you rather have a guy like Drew Sutton, who's left-handed and has some pop, over Janish on your bench?

O-Cab rumors

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, O-Cab is choosing between offers from the Rockies and the Reds. The Reds certainly need him more than the Rockies do, and could leave him at shortstop.

Reds 25-man roster preview - outfield

The final part of our 25-man roster preview is the outfield, at least until we have to do a bunch of updates because of a new signing, etc. or just because I left out guys. As usual, let's start with the easy stuff. Jay Bruce will be the right fielder. A lot of people don't realize this, but Bruce actually had more at bats in '08 than '09. Bruce's '09 was certainly a disappointment, but he's still very young and I haven't seen any expert predict he won't eventually break out even though it didn't happen last year. His .223 average was certainly a concern, but he improved his walks to strike outs ratio a lot over '08, hit for more power, and had a slightly increased OPS. Plus, in 34 post-injury at bats last September, he hit .353 with four home runs. Look for Bruce to have a big year this year.

Center field is a mild question mark. I guess the only issue is whether Dusty's love affair with Willy Taveras is over? In spite of a terrible year (an OPS of .559) Dusty stuck with Taveras right up to his injury. At that point, the Reds went with Drew Stubbs, who had a stunning debut with 8 home runs, 10 stolen bases,and a .762 OPS in 180 at bats. The OPS was just a tick below Bruce's. According to Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus, the break out does not seem like a fluke. He compared Stubbs to Mike Cameron. We'll take that. Now, if we could be sure that Stubbs will get his chance. I could see Dusty going back to Taveras if he has a good spring. Probably the most egregious part of last year's T-Virus debacle was that Dusty never moved him out of the lead-off spot. I'd show up at the park and see Taveras leading off and Janish batting second. I knew we were doomed. Look for Stubbs to struggle some in the starting role, but end up with a decent season if the Dusty sticks with him. The power will go down some but the steals (and the defense) are for real. I'm sure the Reds would trade Taveras if they could, but look for the Reds to aggressively shop him come trade deadline time.

Now the biggie: left field. There have been a ton of rumors swirling around the Reds this week, mostly because the media are obsessed with the Johnny Damon thing. Best I can tell, Scott Boras tried to get the Reds involved with Damon, not the other way around. Although Jockety did admit to discussing Damon with Boras, but apparently after calling Boras about Nady, who's since signed with the Cubs. Crazy stuff, but it's nice to see the Reds in the rumor mill. I'll wait to write about Damon if we get him. Otherwise, I'll assume the Reds are going to go to camp with what they've got. (I think Gomes, who I love, is trying to cash in on a pretty good season last year and will hold out for more money than the Reds can afford. And besides the Damon issue, I see the Reds trying to fill the short stop hole (or fifth starter hole for that matter) through free agency before they buy a left fielder.)

There are a ton of candidates for the left field spot. One possibility before we get to them all, though, would be to play Taveras everyday in center and let Stubbs take over in left. This might satisfy Dusty, and might showcase Taveras for a possible trade (if he's playing well) without stunting Stubbs. If the Reds don't think they can compete, building up Taveras's trade value might be the way to go. Right now, however, it looks like the Reds have two righties and three lefties in the mix. For righties, there's Wladimir Balentien, a late-last-season pick-up, and Chris Heisey, the Reds' top outfield prospect, but only a three-star one. Heisey really impressed last year, but I see Balentien, a prospect who's been around for a while and who might be down to his last shot, as the front-runner for the "rightie" spot in left. He's got a ton of power, but needs to make better contact. Plus, Heisey and Stubbs in the outfield, with a still not proven Bruce, seems too young to me. Balentien's at least got some MLB at bats.

On the left side for left field, the Reds have Chris Dickerson, who sort of broke out in '08, but had a disappointing year in '09, Laynce Nix, who played a lot (and some times well) for the Reds in '09, and the newly signed Josh Anderson. Both Nix and Anderson are on minor league deals, which makes it harder for them to make the team. Dickerson seems to be the front-runner for the spot, but this could be one of those true spring training battles for a roster spot.

Other options include moving guys out of position. Yonder Alonso had a rough year (albeit an injury-plagued year) and his star has tarnished some. If he's less of a sure thing, maybe he will be the guy to eventually move to left rather than Votto. But that won't happen this spring. Juan Francisco, the power hitting third base prospect who hit .429 in a brief call-up last year, may see time in left, but BP has him rated below Heisey on the prospect list. The Reds' top position-player prospect, Todd Frazier, who by all accounts is ready to hit in the bigs, is another option. But they're actually talking about him playing some shortstop (he's been at second base mostly) this spring to see if they can get him in the line-up that way.

Right now, I see Bruce in right, Stubbs in center, and Taveras as the fourth outfielder. The other two outfield spots (really a platoon in left) will be up for grabs in the spring. They're are enough guys in the mix right now that they don't need to sign anyone, and don't need to move a guy out of position (yet). But stay tuned for possible changes. (And keep your fingers crossed for Johnny Damon.)

Reds rumors

Something is up with the Reds, as things are heating up on the rumor mill. Fay and Sheldon have both been very active in the last couple of days. Here is a summarizing link.

Reds add to infield mix

The Reds signed Miguel Cairo to a minor league deal. He can play all four infield positions. He was with the Phillies organization last year, but didn't add much to the major league roster. He's a veteran of a bunch of teams, but I don't see him making the team. He might be a good candidate for the 25th spot, and could be an upgrade over Adam Rosales, the guy most likely to lose out because of this signing.

Lost preview

Last night, ABC re-ran last season's Lost finale. There are now two big questions on everyone's mind, the first being, did the bomb "work"? Or, is the plane still going to crash?

One of, if not the best, all-time Lost scenes was the first scene of Season 2, where we meet Desmond in the hatch. Appart from the time travel, that was probably the single most game-changing moment in the entire series. So we know Lost likes to open with a bang (last season's opener introduced the time travel aspect). My prediction, this season will open with the whole gang getting on the plane in Sydney and flying to L.A. In other words, no plane crash. So in that sense, blowing up the island in the 1970's "worked" from the stand point that the plane never crashed. But clearly this group had conections, or a destiny. A great season would be the group landing in L.A., but then spending the season connecting to each other anyway, or fullfilling their destinies. The problem with this approach, however, is that none of the questions about the island would be answered. I guess they could make it to the island for some other reason.

Remember, it was Fariday's idea to set off the bomb and change the future. Maybe Miles was right last night when he questioned if this idea would work. I always suspected that Fariday wanted to reverse history just so his girlfriend, Charlotte, wouldn't die from the time-travel sickness.

The second big question, of course, is whether or not we'll get a satisfactory ending. I think they'll spend all season building to the "big tell" (and high ratings) which will come in the finale. In other words, they won't possibly have the time to tie up all of the loose ends. But a great explanation of the what and why (and the when?) should alleviate concerns over a few loose ends. But it better not be purgatory and I don't want to see Suzanne Plushette or Jackie Childs.

Baseball Prospectus top 10 Reds prospects

Here are the Reds' top prospects according to Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Mike Leake, RHP
3. Todd Frazier, INF
Three-Star Prospects
4. Yonder Alonso, 1B
5. Travis Wood, LHP
6. Chris Heisey, OF
7. Brad Boxberger, RHP
8. Juan Francisco, 3B
9. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
10. Billy Hamilton, SS
Two-Star Prospects
11. Miguel Rojas, SS

Four More:
12. Matt Maloney, LHP: A pure finesse lefty, Maloney is exceptionally good at his craft, but his ceiling is a fifth starter.
13. Zach Cozart, SS: Cozart is a plus defender at shortstop with surprising pop, but his pure hitting skills are lacking.
14. Mariekson Gregorius, SS: This Dutch import has solid tools across the board, and he impressed scouts in the Pioneer League.
15. Juan Duran, OF: He has crazy tools, but to call him raw doesn't really do the concept justice.

The most disturbing aspect of this list has to be Yonder Alonso downgraded to a three star prospect. Last year Goldstein had him as a five star prospect, 35 overall in all of baseball. Now he's below Frazier, as he is on most top-ten lists I've seen.

Goldstein says scouts are split over whether his power has dropped off or if the power was simply gone due to a hamate bone injury. One good thing, he gets on base. With his drop in status, it seems more likely the Reds will try to move him to left and leave Votto at first rather than vice versa.

I'll be interested to see if Chapman ends up in BP's overall top 10. Could happen, but I doubt it. He needs to show more consistent control to be a can't miss guy.

Here is how Goldstein ranks the Reds' top guys, regardless of prospect status, under 25:

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)

1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
2. Homer Bailey, RHP
3. Jay Bruce, OF
4. Drew Stubbs, CF
5. Johnny Cueto, RHP
6. Mike Leake, RHP
7. Todd Frazier, INF
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B
9. Travis Wood, LHP
10. Wladimir Balentien, OF

Nice to see Stubbs so highly regarded, and that Goldstein still believes in Bailey and Cueto. Here is Goldstein's short summary:

Chapman alone brings up the organizational ranking considerably. Without him, the Reds' system is down, but for all the right reasons, as the youth is already at the big-league level, including an impressive cadre of young arms, which could return the team to contention.

Reds bullet points

We don't do a lot of bullet point posts here, but the rumors in baseball are really starting to heat up and the Reds have come up on a number of guys. So here are some bullet points and links for your consideration:

- We mentioned O-Cab yesterday with a link to John Fay's blog; Mark Sheldon thinks it's unlikely his price will fall far enough for the Reds to be able to afford him.

- The Reds are one of several teams set to watch Noah Lowry pitch in an audition for a starting rotation spot. His best asset, of course, is that he's a lefty.

- Scott Boras is trying to drum up interest in Johnny Damon. You have to assume this is only a ploy to bring the Yankees back up to a respectable offer. I doubt the Reds could afford Damon, but he'd fit nicely in left. Frankly, I'd rather see the Reds pursue a shortstop if they can't do both.

- In addition to O-Cab, the Reds have been linked to Alfredo Amezaga. In spite of the great name, he would be a disaster signing for the Reds.

- Eric Milton is still out there.

- So is Eric Bedard. He seems riskier than Sheets, but probably wouldn't command as high a contract. I'd like to see the Reds at least kick the tires on the power lefty. One thing about him, although he's often been injured, he's usually pretty good when he does pitch. Maybe the Reds could give him two years and give him 2010 to work his way back to being an ace. I sure would like to know what the scouts are saying about him. Maybe he should hold an open workout like Sheets did.

Look for our last installment of the 25-man roster preview, the outfield, soon. It's taking a while to figure out all of the possible left field options.

O-Cab

Yesterday I mentioned Orlando Cabrerra as a possible solution to the Reds' shortstop hole. I'm not the only one that thinks that. In discussing the remaining free agents, John Fay of the Enquirer had this to say:

The only guy on the list I see as a fit for the Reds is Orlando Cabrera. He’s probably too expense for them at this point. A week or so into February and that might not be the case.

Stay tuned.

Fanhouse top 100 prospects

The Fanhouse website is up with its top 100 prospects list. Here is what they said about Aroldis Chapman at no. 39:

Chapman could easily be in the top five, but at this point how can we really be sure? Much of Chapman's game is still a mystery, but if reports are to believed, and he can consistently produce that type of huge velocity, he'll be moving up this list in a hurry. Right now, he makes it purely on expectations.

Other Reds on the list include Todd Fazier at 56, Yonder Alonso at 57, and Mike Leake at 61. It's a little disappointing to see the Reds' last two first round picks, Alonso and Leake, so low.

Interestingly, Zach Stewart, who the Reds traded to Toronto as part of the Scott Rolen deal, is 60. Maybe the Reds gave up more than people thought in that deal, although I think the prospects were part of the deal because the Jays sent money back to the Reds to pay the rest of Rolen's 2009 salary.

I'm sure more top prospects lists will be out soon and we'll try to get you all of the Reds dope on the prospects. Baseball Prospectus should have its top-11 Reds' prospects up today or tomorrow. Also, check back for a post of where the Blue Sox' prospects appear on the various lists.

Baseball America top-ten propects lists by team

Baseball America has its top-ten prospect list up for each team and you can look at the lists for free. More detailed information requires a subscription. Here is the link for the Reds.