The Epilogue

I still need someone to explain this to me.

More on Damon

Here is an excerpt from a general baseball chat by Jay Jaffe at Baseball Prospectus:

Scott (DC): If the Reds find a huge pile of money under the mattress and add Johnny Damon, do they instantly become favorites for the Wild Card?

Jay Jaffe: Man, if the Reds understood anything about the marginal win curve, they'd already have signed Damon. He'd be a nice fit in that park, and they really could use his bat atop that lineup.

Then again, that they haven't signed him suggests that maybe they know too much about the conditions of some of those young arms. Say a prayer for Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez tonight.


Marginal win curve basically means that the value of a win that takes you from win 84 to win 85, when the wild card winner is 85 wins, is a lot higher than the value of a win that takes you from 70 to 71 (or for that matter from 102 to 103). Teams that are very close to contention should pay a lot to get extra wins. Teams that are out of it need not worry and teams that are locks shouldn't over pay for more wins. (That's some what simplified for the locks, because they may be simply improving the team for a playoff win, and those are very valuable.) If the value of Damon is three wins, that would be very valuable to a team like the Reds, but not as valuable to a team like the Pirates.

Having said that, Damon is the perfect fit for the Reds because the Reds desperately need a left fielder, really their one remaining question mark. I guess it still remains to be seen what he'd be willing to take, but I still say he could be this year's Abreu although I've said that about Jermaine Dye, as well. Maybe the answer is to see which one of those two would play for the smallest salary and sign that guy.

Having signed some veterans like O-Cab and Hernandez, and extending Rolen, is wasted money unless the Reds are trying to win. The marginal value of adding one more piece is huge and the Reds should not let this chance go to waste.

Here's a fun scenario: The Reds sign Damon to a one-year, $6 mil. deal. The great Winn/Thames/Gardner experiment fails miserably, and the Reds trade Damon to the Yanks for catching prospect Jesus Montero. That would be nice for everyone but the Blue Sox.

Hey Yankees fans -- relax

We are certainly going to hear the hype/hysteria all year out of New York regarding Jeter, Rivera, and to a lesser extent Girardi. Here is the voice of reason on the subject. Although Rivera may be a legitimate concern under a couple of different scenarios, this won't be much more than a media distraction.

Minor league keepers

In the bgal (AL only, 10 team, 4x4 roto keeper league with a $50.00 budget), we get to keep up to four minor leaguers. To be eligible as a minor league, the player has to have been in the minor leagues (and not just on an injury rehab stint) on August 31 last season. In other words, a September call-up doesn't lose his minor league eligibility. Right now, I only have four guys eligible, so deciding which four to keep is easy unless I make a trade. The point of this post is to solicit opinion on whether I should stand pat with the four I have or try and make a trade to upgrade my minor league squad. You should know that we will have a four-round minor league draft prior to our major league auction, so in addition to the four I keep, I'll have three more on the squad when the season starts (I traded my fourth round pick). This comes into play knowing that next year I can again only keep four. So I have to have some guys graduate to the majors, or risk losing them next year. (In other words, if I go into next season with more than four eligible, I'll lose some of them.) Of Course, minor leaguers are always good trade bait (which is why I only have four right now).

I have Brian Matusz but because he was called up on August 4, he's not minor-league eligible. Like I said above, this can be good. If he were eligible, I would have 5 and have to cut some one (or make a trade). I first saw Matusz in the 2008 Arizona Fall league and was very impressed. He seemed top-notch, but I really did not expect him to be called up so soon. He's almost a lock for the O's rotation from the get go, unless he completely blows it this spring. I can keep him on my major league roster for $1.00 which I certainly will do.

My current minor leaguers are Lars Anderson, Aaron Hicks, Jesus Montero, and Justin Smoak. Montero and Smoak are no-brainers. I picked Smoak last year over Eric Hosmer, mostly because I saw Smoak play in Arizona; so that was my tie-breaker. I got luck in that he had a way better year than Hosmer. I wanted Carlos Santana for my catching prospect but he went right before I got to pick (third round, I had already taken Matusz and Smoak) so I took Montero. Not a terrible consolation pick, but Montero may not stick at catcher which would impact a large chunk of his value.

That leaves Hicks, who I picked in the fourth round last year as a deep sleeper pick, and Anderson, who I got in a '08 season trade and kept last year. Anderson had a terrible year last year, going from a .934 OPS in '08 between A and AA to a .673 OPS in AA. He's my weakest keeper. Hicks on the other hand is now the Twins' top prospect.

So Hicks is now a top guy and Smoak and Montero are no-brainers. The only issue with Hicks is that he's very unlikely to make the Twins before 9/1/10. So if I keep him this year, I'll probably have to keep him next year, too. So I would be counting on a couple guys to make it in the bigs before 9/1. Smoak seems like a good candidate, but I don't see the Yanks and Sox promoting Montero and Anderson. So that's three keepers for next year before I've even drafted for next year. So I think the thing to do is to keep the four and see if Anderson rebounds. Then decide whether to keep him. And maybe try to trade Hicks during the season when I'm making a late-year title run (or at least a move to make it to the money).

But I could try and trade one now and go into the year with only three (plus my three picks this year) and keep the best four next year or hope at least two graduate. Another possibility is to make runs at guys in this year's draft that are minor league eligible and likely to play this year, like Scott Sizemore or Brett Wallace. That would cut down on any keeper angst next year. Or, finally, I could try and trade for an upgrade on my four current guys. That would probably be a top major league guy, though, to pry away a minor-league keeper that's better than what I already have.

I'll have a post up on my major league keepers closer to the deadline, which will require a lot more work, but I wanted to get the minor leaguers out there so that any one that wants to can comment.

How much is Rosie worth?

Does this clear up the big question from yesterday's trade? While it is an explanation, I still don't get it. Rosie may be worth $800,000.00 per year over the next three years (although I doubt it), surely there was a cheaper way to procure his services.

Here is Rob Neyer's take. I read somewhere else (but can't find the link right now) that the A's are hoping to trade Taveras in the next ten days. Probably the Reds' right to a PTBNL or cash depends on the success of this venture. But, again, paying this kind of money to get Rosie and agreeing to shop Taveras for the Reds seems like an awfully steep price. Let's stay-tuned on this one.

Inside dope on Reds' prospects

As luck would have it, I got some inside dope on three of the Reds' top four prospects from a scout from another organization. The dope came via one of my best baseball contacts. The news is not good.

Aroldis Chapman (Baseball Prospectus #1): On Chapman, the scout said he was a big stretch for the money. He's only got 1 and 1/2 pitches and there's a question about his make-up. He's probably a reliever down the road.

Todd Frazier (BP #3): May not become a regular player. He may not have the power to play a corner position, which is where his skills are leading him.

Yonder Alonso (BP #4): His struggles against left handers are real. He even struggled with lefties in college.

Mike Leake is BP's 2nd ranked Reds' prospect.

The Reds have not had a great reputation for drafting/signing and developing guys. For example, their first pick in the 2007 draft, Devin Mesoraco, did not even make BP's top-15 prospects. That's unexcusable. (Frazier was their second pick that year.)I hope this scout is wrong, but the Reds may be in for a decline in the farm system. I'm less worried about Frazier and Chapman than I am about Alonso.

Reds trade Taveras

Yesterday, I said the Reds would need to make some move with the 40-man roster to make room for O-Cab. We didn't have to wait long for that move. Apparently, Walt Jocketty had the same apprehension I did about Dusty still wanting to play Taveras, because he traded him, along with Adam Rosales, to the A's for Aaron Miles and a PTBNL. The A's then promptly designated Taveras for assignment.

I guess the first big question has to be what's going on in Oakland? Why take the financial hit on Taveras to replace utility man Miles with utility man Rosales? I don't think Rosales has enough upside to justify that kind of hit. There has to be more to the story from the A's side of this deal.

But never mind for the Reds. The Taveras saga is now over in Cincy. Jocketty blew it by giving him two guaranteed years, and Dusty compounded the problem by refusing to move him out of the lead-off spot. (I wonder if the A's would like Mike Lincoln?) Surely, this clears centerfield for Drew Stubbs. it also gives the Reds an extra $1.3 mil. which can go toward O-Cab's new salary or into a pot for Jermaine Dye.

Miles becomes the main utility infielder for the Reds, and both he and O-Cab can now be added to the forty man. Miles had a miserable year last year for the Cubs, finishing with a .185 avg. and a .466 OPS. His career numbers, however, are .282/.322/.356. The A's got Miles in December as part of the Jake Fox deal with the Cubs. This deal reunites Miles and Jocketty who were together in St. Louis in 2006 when the Cards won the series.

The other question from this deal is what happens to Janish? Obviously, he'd be a good back-up at short because of his glove, but wouldn't the Reds be better off with a guy like Drew Sutton as the back-up, since he hits lefty and has some pop? The answer might depend on who wins the left field derby or if the Reds go with a platoon in left. I'm still holding out hope they'll trade for Perkins and sign Dye.

What's next for the Reds?

After signing Cabrerra, the big question is what's next for the Reds? If anything. Most likely, the Reds are finished with any big deals (and by that I mean more than $1 mil.) but there will still be some moves. For one thing, the Reds will have to make room on the 40-man for O-Cab. It looks like O-Cab signed with the Reds because he wanted to play short instead of second. That's exactly what we predicted would happen.

Here's what I'm proposing for the Reds: they need to trade a prospect off of the 40-man (actually 2) to make room for O-Cab and find a better 5th-starter option, preferably a lefty. The Reds have committed to Rolen at third for the next three years, so Juan Francisco is blocked there. They may try him in left, but that's not a great solution, especially with the other young talent they have in the outfield. So who needs a third-base prospect and has an extra lefty for the rotaion? The Twins. They've had trouble at third for a while now, and if ever a guy needed a change of scenery it's Glen Perkins. Perkins would be an upgrade over Maloney and Francisco has good trade value right now coming off of a great power year. The Twins have depth in the rotation, and could spare Perkins. The Reds would have to include another 40-man guy, but it could be a lesser prospect, and the Twins would have to include a non-40-man guy, preferably a third-base prospect who is further away than Francisco.

What about other free agents? As far as actual 2010 payroll, the Reds still have a little bit left over from the Rolen re-structure, but some of that was no doubt eaten up in raises for the arbitration eligible guys. So let's say they're out of money and could only sign another guy if Mr. Castellini opens up the payroll a little more. John Fay has reported he might do that, but arguably he already did with O-Cab. But if you're going to trade for Rolen and sign O-Cab, why not go a few more marginal dollars and make a run? Last year, the Reds reportedly took quite a run at Jermaine Dye; it just didn't work out. And that was when Dye was making in the neighborhood of $12-13 mil. Now, he is no doubt available for quite a bit less. He reportedly turned down a similar deal to what the Cubs gave Nady, but I'm not convinced that was because of the money. Nady signed as the fouth outfielder; I don't think Dye was ready to give up on a starting role. Dye could be this year's Abreu, signing a one-year deal a little below market in a favorable player situation to rebuild his value for next year. The Reds (and they're left field spot) are the perfect fit for Dye. His defensive decline will seem less sharp in left field for the Reds. And the short fence in left will help him at the plate, as well. I could see him coming here and having a big bounce-back year, putting himself back on the market next year off of a good season, looking for a multi-year deal. Again, see Abreu.

The Reds are also reportedly still in on Gomes, as well, having offered a minor league deal. I think Gomes will hold out for a major league contract based on the season he had last year. Of course, if the Reds were to sign Dye, Gomes would have to look elsewhere.

I really don't see any other free agents that would both be affordable and help the Reds short or long term. Mark Mulder is out there, and he's got some history with Walt Jockety with the Cardinals, but there's been no chatter connecting Mulder to the Reds. He would be a nice lefty starter if healthy, but may need more guaranteed money than the Reds want to pay (like Sheets). Damon is also out there, but I think he'll hold out for more than what the Reds could pay Dye, and I think Dye's a better fit because of his power potential in Pretty Good American Small Park.

Reds nab O-Cab

Everyone is reporting that the Reds have signed Orlando Cabrerra to a one year deal with an option. John Fay has reported the deal as $3 mil. but other reports have it at $4 mil. With a $1 mil. buyout of an option, it's really $5 mil. guaranteed.

This is exciting news for anyone that wants to see the Reds compete in 2010. The Reds have taken the money they "saved" on Rolen's restructure to sign a veteran guy at a big hole. (I say "saved" because it would have been cheaper not to trade for Rolen in the first place, but that's water under the bridge.) A lot of people are really looking forward to Rolen's leadership this year and O-Cab may help in that department. He certainly seemed to help the Twins last year make the playoffs when he came over in a deadline deal from the A's.

O-Cab will hit; the question is will he play enough defense to be an upgrade over Janish. I think he will. The other question is whether Janish even makes the team now. If your the Reds, and this may depend partly on how the outfield is constructed in terms of right/lefty, wouldn't you rather have a guy like Drew Sutton, who's left-handed and has some pop, over Janish on your bench?

O-Cab rumors

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, O-Cab is choosing between offers from the Rockies and the Reds. The Reds certainly need him more than the Rockies do, and could leave him at shortstop.

Reds 25-man roster preview - outfield

The final part of our 25-man roster preview is the outfield, at least until we have to do a bunch of updates because of a new signing, etc. or just because I left out guys. As usual, let's start with the easy stuff. Jay Bruce will be the right fielder. A lot of people don't realize this, but Bruce actually had more at bats in '08 than '09. Bruce's '09 was certainly a disappointment, but he's still very young and I haven't seen any expert predict he won't eventually break out even though it didn't happen last year. His .223 average was certainly a concern, but he improved his walks to strike outs ratio a lot over '08, hit for more power, and had a slightly increased OPS. Plus, in 34 post-injury at bats last September, he hit .353 with four home runs. Look for Bruce to have a big year this year.

Center field is a mild question mark. I guess the only issue is whether Dusty's love affair with Willy Taveras is over? In spite of a terrible year (an OPS of .559) Dusty stuck with Taveras right up to his injury. At that point, the Reds went with Drew Stubbs, who had a stunning debut with 8 home runs, 10 stolen bases,and a .762 OPS in 180 at bats. The OPS was just a tick below Bruce's. According to Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus, the break out does not seem like a fluke. He compared Stubbs to Mike Cameron. We'll take that. Now, if we could be sure that Stubbs will get his chance. I could see Dusty going back to Taveras if he has a good spring. Probably the most egregious part of last year's T-Virus debacle was that Dusty never moved him out of the lead-off spot. I'd show up at the park and see Taveras leading off and Janish batting second. I knew we were doomed. Look for Stubbs to struggle some in the starting role, but end up with a decent season if the Dusty sticks with him. The power will go down some but the steals (and the defense) are for real. I'm sure the Reds would trade Taveras if they could, but look for the Reds to aggressively shop him come trade deadline time.

Now the biggie: left field. There have been a ton of rumors swirling around the Reds this week, mostly because the media are obsessed with the Johnny Damon thing. Best I can tell, Scott Boras tried to get the Reds involved with Damon, not the other way around. Although Jockety did admit to discussing Damon with Boras, but apparently after calling Boras about Nady, who's since signed with the Cubs. Crazy stuff, but it's nice to see the Reds in the rumor mill. I'll wait to write about Damon if we get him. Otherwise, I'll assume the Reds are going to go to camp with what they've got. (I think Gomes, who I love, is trying to cash in on a pretty good season last year and will hold out for more money than the Reds can afford. And besides the Damon issue, I see the Reds trying to fill the short stop hole (or fifth starter hole for that matter) through free agency before they buy a left fielder.)

There are a ton of candidates for the left field spot. One possibility before we get to them all, though, would be to play Taveras everyday in center and let Stubbs take over in left. This might satisfy Dusty, and might showcase Taveras for a possible trade (if he's playing well) without stunting Stubbs. If the Reds don't think they can compete, building up Taveras's trade value might be the way to go. Right now, however, it looks like the Reds have two righties and three lefties in the mix. For righties, there's Wladimir Balentien, a late-last-season pick-up, and Chris Heisey, the Reds' top outfield prospect, but only a three-star one. Heisey really impressed last year, but I see Balentien, a prospect who's been around for a while and who might be down to his last shot, as the front-runner for the "rightie" spot in left. He's got a ton of power, but needs to make better contact. Plus, Heisey and Stubbs in the outfield, with a still not proven Bruce, seems too young to me. Balentien's at least got some MLB at bats.

On the left side for left field, the Reds have Chris Dickerson, who sort of broke out in '08, but had a disappointing year in '09, Laynce Nix, who played a lot (and some times well) for the Reds in '09, and the newly signed Josh Anderson. Both Nix and Anderson are on minor league deals, which makes it harder for them to make the team. Dickerson seems to be the front-runner for the spot, but this could be one of those true spring training battles for a roster spot.

Other options include moving guys out of position. Yonder Alonso had a rough year (albeit an injury-plagued year) and his star has tarnished some. If he's less of a sure thing, maybe he will be the guy to eventually move to left rather than Votto. But that won't happen this spring. Juan Francisco, the power hitting third base prospect who hit .429 in a brief call-up last year, may see time in left, but BP has him rated below Heisey on the prospect list. The Reds' top position-player prospect, Todd Frazier, who by all accounts is ready to hit in the bigs, is another option. But they're actually talking about him playing some shortstop (he's been at second base mostly) this spring to see if they can get him in the line-up that way.

Right now, I see Bruce in right, Stubbs in center, and Taveras as the fourth outfielder. The other two outfield spots (really a platoon in left) will be up for grabs in the spring. They're are enough guys in the mix right now that they don't need to sign anyone, and don't need to move a guy out of position (yet). But stay tuned for possible changes. (And keep your fingers crossed for Johnny Damon.)

Reds rumors

Something is up with the Reds, as things are heating up on the rumor mill. Fay and Sheldon have both been very active in the last couple of days. Here is a summarizing link.