Another trade

The reds also traded Jerry Hairston, Jr., to the Yankees for a minor league catcher (not Jesus Montero). Could Stubbs be on the way up?

Trade

The Reds traded Edwin Encarnacion and a minor leaguer to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen, subject to Rolen's approval. More details as I get them.

Reds trade

The Reds finally made a move, but curiously it really doesn't tell us whether they are buyers are sellers. The Reds traded reliever Robert Manual to the Mariners for outfielder Wladimir Balentien. Balentien is a young player and good prospect, but so is Manuel. Balentien should help right away in the Reds line-up and could hit a ton of HR's in Pretty Good American Small Park. The Reds certainly dealt from their strength by dealing a reliever.

I wonder if there's more to come or if this is it. This move won't help me sell my tickets, but I could see the Wlad becoming a big part of the Reds future.

On a side note, the Mariners sure are unloading guys.

Slowey

Kevin Slowey will have wrist surgery and miss the rest of the season. Right now, the Blue Sox only have four starters and were counting on Slowey making a quick return to the Twins' rotation. He's got some value as a keeper next year, but I've put him on the trading block. I'll let you know what happens. By the way, right now, the Blue Sox are in fourth, six points out of third.

Trade buzz

The internet is buzzing that the Reds are close to a deal. But what kind of deal isn't certain. CBS reports the Reds still consider themselves buyers and are trying to trade for Rolen. AOL reportst the Reds are trying to trade a pitcher, perhaps Arroyo or Harang to the Dodgers. Others say the Reds won't make any trade that won't help the team this year. Stay tuned...

Bgal update

When I last posted on the Bgal (A.L. only) I announced that I finally have a decent team. I'm still in 6th, but only 8.5 points out of third as opposed to 20 out of third. The only problem is that it doesn't look like Slowey and Wang are going to help again this year. I could probably do without Wang, but I need Slowey back. I don't think I can make it with only four starters, even if they are CC, Beckett, A.J., and Lackey.

RIP

I was in San Diego for a four day weekend so, fortunately, I missed most of the carnage, as the Reds were swept twice on their six game road trip. The Cubs series was particularly painful (and not just because most of the guys I was in S.D. with are Cubs fans) because the sweep vaulted them into first place. The Cubs are now 51-45. If they go .500 the rest of the way, the Reds would have to go 40-25 to tie them. That's .615 baseball. We haven't seen anything from the Reds to indicate that it's even possible for them to finish that strong. And that doesn't even consider the other three teams inbetween the Cubs and Reds. (I posted earlier that I thought the Cards would win the division.)

So, what to do? Even though I still have a lot of tickets for games late in the season, I think the Reds should be actively selling off their high-priced talent. Harang and Arroyo are perfectly serviceable pitchers and their contracts are not outrageous (Harang gets $12.5 mil. in '10, with an '11 club option/buyout, Arroyo gets $11 mil. in '10 with an '11 club option/buyout), but they certainly have more value to the Reds as trade bait right now than as pitchers for the rest of this year and next. One factor here might be the confidence level the Reds have that Volquez can come back. A 2010 rotation of Volquez, Cueto, Owings, and Bailey isn't as bad as one without Volquez. But I would make every effort to trade those guys. I would also try to move Cordero. He's having a great season, but he's owed $24 mil. over the next two years. I'm sure a contending team could use his services. (The Tigers come to mind; so does Texas.)

Finally, I would unload as many of the offensive players as they can who are free agents next year or just plain old. I don't know what they could get, but I would shop Taveras, Gonzalez, Hairston, Gomes, and Nix. I'd also shop Weathers and Rhodes. Those guys are having good seasons and might bring something back in trade. The offensive guys probably won't bring anything, but they're not helping an '09 team that won't win, and probably won't be around for the next decent team.

I've been saying that a .500 record is the first step, but this team can't even play .500 ball. I think the fans would rather see the older guys shipped out in favor of the future than a .500 record in '09.

Cards make run

With first DeRosa and now Holliday (and to some extent Lugo) the Cards have made it clear that they want to win the division. Right now, it's hard to imagine that they won't.

DC

Rachel and I went to see David Cook the other night at the Madison Theatre. It wasn't quite The Yada Club but it was close. DC can rock. To me, he's more legit as a rocker than Daughtryback. He's a great singer and a good showman. He's apparently cut ties with AI, however; he didn't do any of his songs from the show and passed (thankfully) on singing about the magic rainbow. But I still like Elliot better. Maybe that's because I like Dr. Hook more than Cutting Crew.

Buyers or sellers

Here is an excerpt from Joe Sheehan's article today at Baseball Prospectus on two of the eight teams that might be buyers or sellers. After arguing the Astros should be buyers, he says the following about the Reds:

Resting just 2½ games further back, however, it’s a different story for the Reds. They’ve hung around much as the Astros have, being outscored on the season and featuring the next-to-worst third-order record in MLB, one that is even worse than that of the Nationals. They’re 44-48 because their veteran bullpen has been unconscionably good, the third-best in baseball this year with a 7.3 WXRL, giving them a 23-20 record in games decided by one or two runs. Predictably, their off-season moves have blown up, with Willy Taveras' .291 OBP helping to cripple an offense that is 14th in the league in runs scored. Jay Bruce’s struggle developing hasn’t helped—he was hitting .207/.283/.441 when a broken wrist sidelined him. Dusty Baker failed to play his second-best OBP guy, Chris Dickerson, for a long stretch, falling in love with a brief show of power by Laynce Nix and the memory of Jerry Hairston Jr.’s 2008 season. Neither is helping, and while Dickerson is finally garnering more playing time, it’s come a bit too late.

The drop in offense was expected, but the poor performance by the rotation wasn’t. With two good young arms and two veteran innings guys, the Reds should have been positioned to win lower-scoring games this year. Instead, they’ve placed 21st in SNLVAR, as only Johnny Cueto has been notably effective. The great bullpen has helped, but all things considered, this team is not good enough to contend, even in a weak division.

Not being the Astros gives the Reds a tougher decision to make. They have a better farm system, though not a top one, and a younger core of talent. Not winning this season wouldn’t be the end of the world, and by making the decision to not worry about it, Walt Jocketty could position the team for more success down the road. Were he to heal up in time to be dealt and then deliver something in-season, Ramon Hernandez would be an upgrade behind the plate for a number of teams, and he isn’t carrying a big price tag. Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang are 32 and 31, young enough to contribute here, but perhaps better fits for contenders' rotations. There’s simply no question that the aging anchors of this great bullpen, David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, and Francisco Cordero, would have more value in the trade market than on the Great American Mound. The Reds have need for help up the middle, every spot. The core of Bruce, Cueto, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Drew Stubbs is strong enough to be a contender for the next few seasons; Jocketty has to use the support around them now to make the support around them in 2011 much better. The Reds have to start selling, and quickly, taking advantage of the current seller’s market for talent.

Reds win

The Reds won tonight 4-0. Arroyo continued to increase his trade value and everything broke right for the Reds, including Cassie getting a foul ball.

Blue Sox makeover

Rather than taking off for the All-Star break, the Blue Sox made a bunch of trades. I first traded my third round pick in next year's minor league draft (there are four rounds total) for the rights to Fausto Carmona. His owner was frustrated with him so I thought I would take a chance on him. If he comes back this year I may not have a spot for him so I may have wasted a draft pick, but if he comes back strong, I'll make room. This seemed like a low-risk move that may work out but if it doesn't, oh well.

Ervin Santana is also available (cheap) from the same owner, but I don't think I can afford to take a chance on him as I would have to carry him on the active roster right away.

My next trade was a big one, and one I may regret. I traded Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, and Dioner Navarro for Victor Martinez. My catchers were Navarro and Mike Redmond, with neither helping me and Navarro hurting me. I picked up Brayan Pena for Redmond, figuring that Pena would be sent down when Buck was activated and I'd have a nice minor leaguer, but right now the Royals are going with 3 catchers, so Pena is still active for me. He's one guy I could dump, but I would like to have him for the future. Navarro has been killing me. He may have been the worst hitter in the league in the first half. He does have a history of improvement in the second half, but he would have to improve a lot to be useful down the stretch. I gave the other owner a choice of Pena or Navarro and he picked Navarro.

I also gave a choice of catching prospects, Clement or Jesus Montero, and he picked Clement. This is not a big loss. He's been mostly disappointing to me since I got him as part of the Kevin Youkilis trade (probably my second worst trade ever) and I couldn't keep both prospects next year anyway.

The big loss here is Gordon, and he's why I made the trade. I have Justin Morneau at 1B, Evan Longoria at 3B, and Russell Branyan (at .10) at CI. My DH was Delmon Young (more on him later) but I could have moved one of my outfielders and freed up the DH spot. But, I also have Mike Lowell coming off the D/L. So I have a spot for Lowell or Gordon, but not both. I offered the other owner a choice and he picked Gordon. This was a good pick for him. Both Lowell and Gordon will be $3 next year, but Gordon has much more potential to be great next year than the fading Lowell. But this might actually help me because Gordon won't be 100% when he returns and he's a slow starter. Lowell is also struggling with hip problems, but I like his chances to outperform Gordon in the second half, head-to-head. And that's really what these trades are about, me winning this year. Having said all that, I still wish he'd picked Lowell.

I would be remiss if I didn't berate myself more over how I got in this situation in the first place, which was trading Andrew Bailey and Travis Buck for Lowell and Jason Frasor. I did this like the day before Bailey became the closer and to keep Brandon McCarthy. Ouch. (Plus, I dropped Frasor right away, when he was just a decent set-up guy, which he's back to being now.) I can't tell you how much better off I'd be right now with Bailey, but of course I wouldn't have V-Mart because I wouldn't have Lowell and wouldn't have needed to trade Gordon. We'll see what happens.

The next trade was really good for me and my goal of winning this year. I traded Aaron Poreda, Delmon Young, and Coco Crisp for Alex Rios and A.J. Burnett. A.J. takes Poreda's spot and gives me a top starter for the second half for basically a middle reliever. I love Poreda and think he's going to be a great pitcher, maybe even this year, but A.J. should be a sure thing for the second half. Delmon Young was a throw-in because I would have had to drop somebody to add Rios and he was the worst guy I had in the outfield. Not that Young can't be a great player, but he won't be for the rest of this year. Crisp is out for the year, so he wouldn't help me at all.

From the other owner's prospective this isn't a bad deal, either. Neither of us would keep Rios or Burnett next year, so they don't have any value beyond this season. Young could still become a great player and, at $1 is a good risk. Poreda could develop into a great starting pitcher for the White Sox (no relation) maybe as soon as this year. He's started off great in the pen. And Crisp, if he returns healthy from shoulder surgery next year, is a very valuable $1 outfielder.

So here's where I am:

C V-Mart
C Brayan Pena
1B Morneau
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Longoria
SS Ramon Santiago
CI Branyan
MI Luis Valbuena
OF Grady Sizemore
OF Shin-Soo Choo
OF Melky Cabrera
OF Scott Hairston
OF Willie Bloomquist
DH Alex Rios

When Lowell gets back, I will put him at DH and move Bloomquist to SS or MI and drop either Valbuena (who's been terrible, but has some keeper value) or Santiago (who could be good if he got to play more). I'll have to figure that one out later.

P CC Sabathia
P Josh Beckett
P John Lackey
P A.J. Burnett
P Brian Fuentes
P Phil Hughes
P Michael Wuertz
P Justin Speier
P Alfredo Aceves

I have Slowey on the D/L, so when he comes back I'll put him in, probably for Speier. If I drop another pitcher it will probably depend on whether Aceves takes Wang's spot in the rotation or if they give it to Mitre. (Ideally it would go to Hughes, but other people, smarter than I am, have already written on that topic.)

So when Slowey returns, I will have 5 good starters, one closer, and three middle relief types (at least until Wang gets back).

I think I have finally assembled a great AL only team. The question is whether or not its too little too late. I'm currently in 6th place, 25 points out of first. (There are a total of 80 points, ten in each category.) I'm twenty points out of third. You need third to finish in the money, so that's my short-term goal. Catch third. I had really hoped to win this year with a strong commitment to some top guys that I can't keep next year, like Sizemore and Morneau, but injuries have hurt me some and my bit players haven't done enough. Hopefully, I've done enough now to crack the top three.

As far as minor leaguers for next year, I'm still good. We can keep four and I have Brian Matusz, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero, and still have several possibilities to choose from for my fourth guy.