BGAL draft re-cap

Last Sunday was the bgal draft, which is the A.L. only keeper league that I participate in. My team is the Blue Sox. Going in, here were my keepers:

1B: Russell Branyan .10
2B: Ian Kinsler 7.40
3B: Evan Longoria 2.00
SS: Cesar Izturus .10
CI: Alex Gordon 1.00
OF: Shin-Soo Choo 1.00
OF: Franklin Gutierez 1.00

P: Josh Beckett 7.50
P: Brian Matusz 1.00
P: Phil Hughes 1.00
P: Ryan Rowland-Smith 1.00
P: Jason Frasor 1.00

Budget: $50.00
Spent: $23.20 for twelve players
Left: $26.80 for eleven players

So right away a couple of things pop out. For instance, should I have kept Gordon with his broken finger? I was really hoping he'd break out this year. The injury is a set-back, but if he has a good year, I still get him next year at $1.00. And I wasn't sure he'd go that cheap in this year's draft, although he probably would have. Also, I'm keeping Frasor on the chance that he wins the closer role with Toronto. That's still up in the air. If he's traded to the Twins to close, that's fine, too, as you'll see later.

I usually plan on about $30 of my $50 for hitting and $20 for pitching, but I don't make that a rule; it's just a guideline. So I had about $17.50 for hitting and $9.50 for pitching. I planned on targeting power/speed combo guys, and allotted $12.20 for three outfielders and my DH. I threw Brian Roberts back (because of his injury) at $6.20 and budgeted $5.00 to try and get him back. I put in .20 for my two catchers, hoping to land Brayan Pena and Adam Moore. Those two guys may not play this year, but I like their chances if they do, and I expect both could be starters next year.

My main target was Grady Sizemore (I threw him back at $9.00) and set aside $7.00 for him. He was the top position player available according to my draft prep. That would leave $3.00 and $2.00 for my last two outfield spots and only .20 for my DH.

Sizemore was called up early and went for $7.90, over my budget. In retrospect, I should have gone to $8.00 but I'm not sure that would have gotten the job done anyway. I couldn't afford to go over $8.00 at that point in the draft.

Roberts came up pretty early, too, and I stuck to my $5.00, letting him go for $5.10. I'm sure he'll play this year, but slowed by a back injury (and lacking steals) would kill his value. I thought $5.10 was too high.

So I ended up with Orlando Hudson for $2.20 in my MI spot. I also ended up with both of my catchers (late in the draft) paying .40 instead of .20. So far so good.

That left me with about $15.00 for my other four guys, three outfielders and a DH. I had already missed out on DH (for me) candidates Miguel Cabrerra ($10.00), Justin Morneau ($8.10), and Billy Butler ($6.00), and speed guys Juan Pierre ($4.30) and Chone Figgins ($7.30) I decided I needed to get four out of these remaining guys: Bobby Abreu, Alex Rios, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Tejada, and Vernon Wells. Abreu went for $5.50, which seemed just a tad high and Wells went for $4.70 which seemed very high. I ended up with Rios at $4.90, a little high, but I was running out of options, Ordonez for $2.80, which seemed about right, and Tejada for my DH spot for $3.80. His shortstop eligibility and clean up spot in the line-up probably make this a decent buy. I wrapped it up by taking Milton Bradley for $2.10. This could be a bust (for obvious reasons) but could be great if the '08 Bradley shows up and he's able to stay healthy.

That's a total of $28.80 for hitting, leaving me a little pitching leeway, but I wouldn't use it very well.

There were a lot of good starters available this year. Last year, it was basically Beckett and CC. Beckett was called up first and I spent most of my budget on him. That made for a pretty boring draft. This year, we had Cliff Lee, CC, Max Scherzer, Javier Vazquez, Rich Harden, Jered Weaver, A.J. Burnett, Mark Buerle, Dice-K, and even Ben Sheets. I had targeted Vazquez and Scherzer, thinking those guys would be underrated. I budgeted $7.00 to get those two guys and another $2.40 for my closer (I wanted Rafael Soriano, the top guy on my board, who I thought would be underrated) and a final starter or cheap reliever.

The draft started with a run on starting pitching. Lee went for $7.90, Javier Vazquez went for $7.90 (too rich for my blood), CC went for $8.50, Burnett went for $5.70, Sheets went for $3.90. When Rich Harden was called up, I started to panic. I still wanted Scherzer, but I needed a top guy, and Harden was next on my list (after Scherzer) so I stayed in on Harden and got him for $4.30. Some other middle guys went, including Dice-K for $3.50, Trevor Cahill for $2.60, Jered Weaver for $3.40, and Mark Buehrle for $3.10.

Then came the run on closers. Soriano was my top guy going in and was still left. Having lost out on most of the guys I targeted, I stayed in on Soriano and paid $5.30. In a 4x4 league, closers are very important. I know the conventional wisdom is don't pay for saves, but in our league closers are hot. Plus, there were no great pitchers left (accept Scherzer) and I didn't want to not spend my money. Scherzer came up pretty late (I brought him up. I had waited a long time, but needed to know if I could get him to fill out my last couple of spots, so I took a chance by bringing him up.) He went for $4.00, which is a great buy, but more than I could afford at that point.

Rounding out my staff, I picked up Jeremy Guthrie for .30. This was a decent buy, but the guy I really wanted as my sleeper was Colby Lewis. He went undrafted.

Finally, I got Kevin Gregg for .10. I guess this is why you don't pay for closers at the draft. I have very little faith in Gregg, but he could get the Blue Jays closer role and will no doubt rack up some saves if he does. And I got him uncontested for the minimum salary. With Frasor at $1, I now either almost certainly have the Blue Jays' saves at a minimum. And maybe the Twins will trade for Frasor (as has been rumored) and give him first shot at the closer role. Then I would have two closers for $1.10. At that point, of course, a trade would be in order, because I also have Soriano at $5.30.

In the minor league draft, I got Kyle Drabek with my first pick and Alex Colome (who will be the next Neftali Feliz) with my second pick. I had no third pick (because of a trade last season) and took a flyer on Leslie Anderson with my fourth and final pick. Overall, not bad for my draft position.

I'm a little disappointed with my team. If I'd known Gregg could have been had for .10, I would have tried harder for Scherzer instead of Soriano, and thrown a little more money at an upgrade on Harden. Harden could be good, but he's a huge injury risk. And I would rather have Lewis than Guthrie, but not enough to make a free agent move on Lewis. Right now, I'm hoping for a Frasor to the Twins trade (but not the Cubs), and then I can try and trade a closer.

My offense is okay. I got basically the guys I wanted, but did not get Sizemore. With Tejada at DH, and SS eligible, I should probably cut Izturus and get a better DH, but there really aren't that many guys left with good projected offense. Do I really want to make a move just to get Jose Guillen?

I did some quick standings projections based on projected stats, both the ones I used and the ones on our site (we use CBS), and I finish anywhere from tied for second to fifth. Keeping an eye on the waiver wire and making some trades, I might be able to upgrade but, with the exception of unloading a closer if I end up with three, I'm going to try and be more patient with my roster this year.

Here are my top need:

I mentioned the Frasor to the Twins trade. That would be great.

I need Hughes to win the fifth starter role.

I need Harden and Bradley to stay healthy, both huge injury risks.

I need Branyan to hit 25 home runs and bat at least .250. The former seems more likely.

I need Gordon to not miss too much time and I need him to finally break out.

I need Rios to bounce back, which I think is very likely.

I need the Tigers to play Ordonez and not worry about his vesting option. (Who knows?)

I need Rowland-Smith and Matusz to continue their developement and be solid starters.

I need the South Korean Army to not call on Choo and ruin my season.

Here is my final roster:

C: Brayan Pena .10
C: Adam Moore .30
1B: Russell Branyan .10
2B: Ian Kinsler 7.40
3B: Evan Longoria 2.00
SS: Cesar Izturus .10
MI: Orlando Hudson 2.20
CI: Alex Gordon 1.00
OF: Shin-Soo Choo 1.00
OF: Franklin Gutierez 1.00
OF: Alex Rios 4.90
OF: Magglio Ordonez 2.80
OF: Milton Bradley 2.10
DH: Miguel Tejada 3.80
P: Josh Beckett 7.50
P: Brian Matusz 1.00
P: Phil Hughes 1.00
P: Ryan Rowland-Smith 1.00
P: Jason Frasor 1.00
P: Rich Harden 4.30
P: Jeremy Guthrie .30
P: Rafael Soriano 5.30
P: Kevin Gregg .10

Total: $49.40
Unspent: .60