Playoff odds

This is a cool site. They do computer simulations of every remaining game (like a thousand times) and publish the results. They predict the Reds to go about 11-9 the rest of the way and give the Reds between a 96% and 97% chance of making the playoffs. I've cited a similar feature at Baseball Prospectus, but that's a pay site. You can get this for free.

Pete Rose

Pete Rose and I have a checkered past. I hated him as a kid, mostly because I was an Oriole fan (and an American League guy). Probably the height of my hatred was in 1980 when he caught the ricochet of the foul ball off of Bob Boone's glove in the World Series and then spiked the ball. Everyone says Pete played the game the right way, but he was one of the original hot dogs in baseball.

In about 1982, however, I decided that Pete would likely break the all-time hits record and set out to collect all of his baseball cards. Right now, I have way more than 100 different Pete Rose cards, and every regular issue card but his rookie and second-year cards. I also have some pretty cool first day covers (popular in stamp collecting) from September 10 and 11, 1985, from Chicago where Pete tied the record and Cincinnati when he broke it. They're autographed. I paid $8 for them when they came out, but have no idea what they might be worth now. So I had a lot invested in Pete making the Hall of Fame and being one of the all-time greats. (What I should have done is started collecting Nolan Ryan cards, but that's another story.)

The Reds are honoring Pete tonight on the 25th anniversary of his record breaking hit, number 4192. (He ended up with 4256.) The Reds got an exemption from MLB to allow Pete to be recognized. If Pete had told the truth right away, these types of appearances would have been common place for him. (His last such appearance was for the Master Card sponsored All-Century team.) But baseball was never going to let Pete back into a clubhouse. What Pete really wanted (wants?) was to be a manager. Or, more cynically, a paycheck from a major league team. That's why he didn't tell the truth. He doesn't care about the recognition; he wants the paycheck.

Overall record

I looked through the books and my current record stands at 16-11, a .593 winning percentage, which is a hair better than the Reds' overall record. That includes one game without Rachel. I can't remember if she's been to a game this year without me.

Since witnessing O-Cab hit a walk-off 10th inning home run on May 5 against the Mets, our record is 15-7, a .682 pace.

We're taking a break from the Reds tonight to head down to Lexington to cheer on the UK Wildcats. Thanks to a loyal reader and fellow blogger for the tickets. Go Cats!

Game 141: Reds break the losing streak, barely

The Reds blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth last night, only to win it on a error in the 12th. It was an absolute must win, so we won't argue with how they got it. They got it. And, let's face it, it was a home game against the Pirates.

The Missile is certainly cruising along with another 10 pitch 1-2-3 inning. He really looks solid. But his performance lead me to create a new rule. You're not allowed to complain about Dusty's managing if you don't know Chapman's name. The guy behind us first complained that Dusty left the starter in too long (it was actually Cordero in the closer rule) and then wondered why Dusty took out "what's his name?" meaning Chapman. (For the record, Dusty pinch hit for Chapman in the bottom of the eleventh.)

Some of the band wagoners are becoming annoying, too. You can always tell them by their negativity and their volume. Apparently, it's important for them to tell everyone how smart they are. (Incidentally, that's what blogs are for.)

The Reds trimmed their magic number over the Cards to 17 last night with the win and a Cards loss to the Braves. With 21 to go, their playoff odds still look pretty solid.

?

I'm at a complete loss for what to write about. I know, I just shouldn't write. But I feel like the Reds are at a critical juncture and I should have some good insight for my loyal readers.

I do know this: the Reds need a win or two in the next two days.

About two weeks ago I was writing about the Reds being the only team in the league with six outfielders and the only team in a while to be platooning the entire outfield. They're now down to three, and all three seem to be struggling a bit.

The pitching (non-Harang category) has been good not great. It's the offense that has struggled (see above re: the outfield). The bullpen in particular has been stellar save for the Missile's issues on Monday. With Cordero throwing strikes and Masset throwing lights out, I like where we sit, especially with Rhodes and Chapman in the pen. That's a solid late-innings relief corps.

Let's hope Pittsburgh and the D'Backs at home can help the Reds whittle that magic number, which is now down to 20.

I guess I'll cry the cry of the truly desparate and ask you, the readers, for ideas for me to write about. Let me know in the comments section.

My first fantasy championship?

My first foray into fantasy baseball (unless you count the team I had back in 1988 for one season) was in an A.L only keeper league (the bgal) in 2006. I named that team the Blue Sox and came in second. But for a stupid roster move with Ryan Garko, I could have had second. The next season I came in second.

I'm now in three leagues, the bgal, the Colonial League (N.L. only re-draft league), and the League of Nations, a Yahoo! head-to-head, mixed league.

We just wrapped up the regular season in the League of Nations and I finished in first by 5 games. I now have a bye for the first round of the playoffs (the quarter finals). Next week, I'll play in the semis and, if I win, a two-week final for the championship. But finishing in first for the regular season is cool. I'm treating it like a real team would a division crown with a playoff nod.

By the way, I'm in first in the Colnial League by about six points. If I can hold on, I may have two championships in one season.

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm in seventh in the bgal.

Game 134: Busch Stadium

The new Busch Stadium was really nice. I felt a bit nostalgic going to the stadium. I'd been to a lot of games at the old Busch, but it had been several years since I'd been to a game there (like about twenty?). In fact, one of my clearest memories from the old Busch was a double-header that my family went to when we first moved to the area back in 1978. My brother got a home run ball that Mike Schmidt hit into the upper deck. Of course, there were other great moments.

We did not have great seats and they were expensive. The more road games we go to the more I realize how great we have it at GABP.

Unfortunately, the Reds lost. It was the second straight game that Arroyo lost 3-2. The loss evened our road record to 3-3.

We didn't go Saturday, which the Reds won 6-1. We thought about trying to go Sunday, but came home instead. Good thing; the Reds lost again 4-2.

The Reds survived the series, winning one and only dropping one in the standings. They still have a seven run lead. Everyone but me seems convinced the Reds are going to win. The media, even the St. Louis media, are writing off the Cards. This commentary from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is particularly good and worth reading.

If the Reds survive the four-game series in Colorado, I may relax some, but I'd like to see that magic number in the teens (it's 21 right now) sooner rather than later.

Math update

We paid for playoff tickets the other day, so we now have a financial interest in the pennant race. (Although if the Reds blew it, it would certainly save me a ton of money.) After 133 games, the Reds sit at 78-55, 23 games over .500 (a .586 mark) and a remarkable 8 games ahead of the second-place Cards. Using the standard "if we go .500 the rest of the way" line, the Reds would finish 93-69. (A 15-14 to finish; I gave them the benefit of the doubt.) To tie and force a playoff with the Reds, the Cards would have to finish up 24-7, an unlikely .774 pace. The Reds' magic number sits at 23.

Might it be time to start thinking about things like home field advantage rather than whether or not we win the division? The answer to that is, "check back next Friday when the Reds come home to play Pittsburgh." With three in St. Louis this weekend and four more in Colorado next week, the Reds can put it away. Or, they can make it a race again. But I don't think they can lose it. Everyone assumed the three game sweep of the Reds by the Cards last month would be it for the Reds, but they bounced back. So even a tough road trip won't count us out. But a winning trip probably seals the deal.

Game 133: Yeah, I remember my first baseball game.

My favorite comedian is Steve Martin, and I've been known to throw out a quote or two in my day. On one of his records (Wild and Crazy guy, I think) he does this bit about his mood watch, which really doesn't go anywhere. Later, I heckler yells out, "What's your mood watch say?" and Steve chuckles and says, "yeah, I remember when I had my first beer." A great response to the heckler.

Last night, we enjoyed another great appearance by the Cuban Missile. (I somehow avoided another Cuban Missile blog post title.) He came in in the 8th, and pitched another one, two, three inning, this time needing 10 pitches, but he did get two k's. The Reds got 6 in the bottom half of the inning, so Chapman got his first big league win for his trouble.

Of course, the crowd went crazy when Chapman came in and most people were standing up. A guy behind us got a little overzealous when someone behind him suggested he have a seat. After the guy carried on a bit too long, Rachel came out with the, "yeah, I remember my first baseball game." Hilarious ... to us. The guy wasn't as amused. But hey, we're all Reds fans and it was a big win so everyone got along in the end.

Triple Crown (or lack thereof) update

As alert reader Scutch pointed out in the comments section of my recent post on Chipper Jones ruining the Triple Crown race, Tony Gwynn did in fact win the batting title in 1996 when he came up short on the required number of at bats, but still won after adding o'fers for the required number. Here is a detailed explanation of the rule.

Game 132: Gomes treats Dave and Rachel to an anniversary home run

I know, game 132 will always be known for Aroldis Champman's major league debut. And this post should have been titled something like, "Cuban Missile launches." But it was our anniversary and Gomes hit a home run for us; so that's what I'll remember most.

On to the game. What a great night at the ballpark. I took a wrong turn on the way home from a deposition ("Why are we entering Tennessee?") so I was a little late and missed the first inning. Fortunately, Rachel had snagged a scorecard and kept perfect records so that I didn't miss anything in the book.

Only about 19,000 folks in attendance last night, which was a bit disappointing, but the folks there were certainly not disappointed. Harang was good not great while in there, but threw too many pitches and had to leave after four. LeCure set the stage with three good innings and the offense cranked it up. In the eighth, the Reds had an 8-3 lead and they went to Chapman. The crowd went crazy. You'll recall Rachel and I drove to Toledo to see his professional debut, and now we would see his major league debut. 8 pitches, 7 strikes, one strike out, no base runners. A perfect inning, 'nuf said.

What was so great, though, was his demeanor. He seemed completely unfazed by any of it. We took a flip video of his first pitch and I'll get that up as soon as I can.

Games 129 and 130: Sports Anderson

I'm a little behind on my blog posts and keeping up with games we've attended. Sorry. (I had to buy a new score book for last night's game, which I will get to. I know you want to read about the launching of the Cuban Missle.)

On Saturday night, we had some friends come up for the game. We didn't have our seats, so I got the best available (non-diamond club division) seats, which turned out to be in the upper deck. The seats weren't too bad and on the plus side they were only $14.00. But no one up there pays attention to the game. It was pretty annoying. Anyway, Arroyo pitched well, but not well enough to win.

On Sunday, our friend was singing the National Anthem (which was great by the way), so we had planned to go for a long time. It was brutally hot. After Rhodes gave up two in the top of the eighth to tie it on a two-run homer by Fukudome, Fukudome gave back the lead in the bottom half with a throwing error that allowed the go ahead run to score. The Reds scored one more, giving the Reds the 7-5 win and the series win.

The best thing at the park came on the Fan Fortune game. You'll recall that yours truly participated in this game not too far back. The clue was #10. You get R-E-D-S, already, so the guy had:

S _ _ R _ _
_ _ DERS _ _

You get to pick three more letters (ahead of time). I don't remember what other letters he picked, but two were P and N. So he had:

SP _ R _ _
_ NDERS _ N

His guess? Of course, Sports Anderson.

Oh, and we went to Morton's Sunday night for a pre-anniversary dinner (we had Reds thickets for the acutal night of) and saw Gomesey eating in the bar. He promised to hit a home run for us for our anniversary.