Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Baseball Prospectus top 10 Reds prospects

Here are the Reds' top prospects according to Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Mike Leake, RHP
3. Todd Frazier, INF
Three-Star Prospects
4. Yonder Alonso, 1B
5. Travis Wood, LHP
6. Chris Heisey, OF
7. Brad Boxberger, RHP
8. Juan Francisco, 3B
9. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
10. Billy Hamilton, SS
Two-Star Prospects
11. Miguel Rojas, SS

Four More:
12. Matt Maloney, LHP: A pure finesse lefty, Maloney is exceptionally good at his craft, but his ceiling is a fifth starter.
13. Zach Cozart, SS: Cozart is a plus defender at shortstop with surprising pop, but his pure hitting skills are lacking.
14. Mariekson Gregorius, SS: This Dutch import has solid tools across the board, and he impressed scouts in the Pioneer League.
15. Juan Duran, OF: He has crazy tools, but to call him raw doesn't really do the concept justice.

The most disturbing aspect of this list has to be Yonder Alonso downgraded to a three star prospect. Last year Goldstein had him as a five star prospect, 35 overall in all of baseball. Now he's below Frazier, as he is on most top-ten lists I've seen.

Goldstein says scouts are split over whether his power has dropped off or if the power was simply gone due to a hamate bone injury. One good thing, he gets on base. With his drop in status, it seems more likely the Reds will try to move him to left and leave Votto at first rather than vice versa.

I'll be interested to see if Chapman ends up in BP's overall top 10. Could happen, but I doubt it. He needs to show more consistent control to be a can't miss guy.

Here is how Goldstein ranks the Reds' top guys, regardless of prospect status, under 25:

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (Born 4/1/84 or later)

1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
2. Homer Bailey, RHP
3. Jay Bruce, OF
4. Drew Stubbs, CF
5. Johnny Cueto, RHP
6. Mike Leake, RHP
7. Todd Frazier, INF
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B
9. Travis Wood, LHP
10. Wladimir Balentien, OF

Nice to see Stubbs so highly regarded, and that Goldstein still believes in Bailey and Cueto. Here is Goldstein's short summary:

Chapman alone brings up the organizational ranking considerably. Without him, the Reds' system is down, but for all the right reasons, as the youth is already at the big-league level, including an impressive cadre of young arms, which could return the team to contention.

No comments: